Charting The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order Philip Pilkington is an unorthodox macroeconomist. Andrew Collingwood is an equally skeptical journalist. Lately, both have realised that - post-Ukraine, post-Afghanistan withdrawal - the old, unipolar, US-led world order is in its death throes. In its wake, something new is being born. But what shape will that take? That will depend on a combustible combination of economics and geopolitics; trade and military muscle. Each week, our duo take thre ...
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Premium Episode: Britain 2029
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This week: in light of the upcoming UK General Election, we're digging into what Britain will look like in five years time. Caught in a low growth high-debt trap, with currency and trade issues cutting off any room to manoeuvre, what's the softest landing for the G7's most vulnerable economy? *** This is a premium week. So to get the full hour show…
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When Liberals Kill, G7 Suicide Pact, Dollarmageddon
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The assassination attempt on Robert Fico has left Europe bemused. Shouldn’t it have left Europe stunned? In an age where condemnation of violent rhetoric has never been fiercer, it seems condemnation of actual violence has seldom been milder. As we move into a more fractious and populist age, what are the implications of the media’s seemingly diver…
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Special Edition: Two Crystal Balls And The Death Of The Washington World Order
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This week, a special edition. Two relatively short term scenarios, with very long term implications. Presented in audio essay form, by our two hosts. In Part One, Philip Pilkington outlines his take on what could happen after the US election. An extended sketch on the possibilty of violent Trussification. He thinks that bond market bullying of the …
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Xi Came In Through The Belgrade Window, Egypt's Pyramid Scheme, Per Capita No Cap
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Belgrade. Budapest. It’s not the classic tourist itinerary – but by his very footprints, Xi Jinping’s historic state visit is redrawing the power map of Europe. What does the continent look like once he’s done stomping about? Meanwhile, the Pound is in deep trouble - the Egyptian Pound, that is. As the land of the pharaohs takes a 45 % haircut on i…
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Special Edition - Q&A
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This week, as advertised on Twitter dot com, the lads are answering your questions. Among other topics, they cover: Rent-seeking behaviour in the West. Airbus. The German elite. The Mexican-American standoff Book recommendations. The life-changing magic of JM Keynes And memes. Of course, this is also a premium week. So to get the full two hour show…
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Yuan Way Or Another, Korea Advice, Dollar Save Club
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Like Germany hiding in the Euro, China have long played the game of keeping their currency soft, to juice their exports. But now, with the accelerator still jammed to the floor on US inflation, it seems that the powers in Beijing might be looking to devalue the Rimimbi even further. Everyone plays currency games - the trick is not to get caught. An…
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Bananageddon, We’re Gonna Need A Bigger Boat, Enter The Draghi
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A diplomatic incident in Latin America has somehow become the focal point for an ever-expanding range of stories - from the Venezuelan elections, to US energy policy to Ecuadorian banana exports to Russia. Leading even coolheaded observers to ponder the question: are we approaching the Latin American embassy incident singularity? Meanwhile, there a…
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Special Episode: Big Trouble With Little Rocket Man
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Little Rocket Man has a new toy. This month, Kim Jong Un unveiled a Bond-villain-like missile with an extending tip. On that tip was what looks to be a hypersonic glide vehicle. A hypersonic glide vehicle is the real deal. They're extremely fast. They can manoeuvre at those high speeds. And we don’t yet know if it’s possible to shoot them down. On …
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Premium Episode: The Atlanticists vs The Autonomists
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The Atlanticists versus the Autonomists - the European civil war coming soon to a bureaucracy near you. It’s long been a theme of this show that the continent is being slowly capsized by its long term problems, related to energy and productivity. We’ll be picking through three news items that tell the short term story of the continent’s woes. Terri…
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Sino More, A Bridge Too Far, America's Trussification
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New research from Bloomberg says that Beijing is steering the Chinese economy away from the recent real estate boom, and into high tech manufacturing. It’s a drive estimated to be worth 19% of GDP by 2026. Running the numbers, not only is China Collapse Theory once again proved false, the market may even have under-priced how much gas there still i…
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Special Edition: The Economic Consequences Of The War
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This is a special edition of Multipolarity on The Economic Consequences Of The War. In 1919, JM Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Predicting the death of the old world order after Europe’s first unsuccessful attempt at suicide. We aren’t yet at peace, but the economic consequences of the present war in the middle of Europe are st…
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Machine Learning Difficulties, Don't Hate-O The NATO, Britain's Shrivelling Equities
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NVIDIA has become a stock market behemoth on the back of their AI-friendly graphics chips. Last week saw them hit a $2.19 trillion market capitalisation. So are they the future of the globe’s most info-critical resource - or a sign that we’re entering the Pets.com era of the AI age? Meanwhile, after months of delays and diplomatic blocking operatio…
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Premium Edition: The YIMBY Defence League, Nuland Goes, Galloway Comes
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Does the housing market obey the laws of supply and demand? We say no. Join us for a controversial, possibly mind-blowing journey into the heart of darkness, into an upside-down-world that set Twitter on fire this week. Victoria Nuland has fallen on her sword. Or someone else’s sword. Whatever happened to America’s third-ranking diplomat, suddenly …
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Special Edition: The Burger Theory Of History (feat. Malcom Kyeyune)
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"Hamburgers will decide America's future". So says Malcolm Kyeyune in a recent essay ruminating on the American journalist Tucker Carlson's recent visit to Moscow where he famously - or, perhaps, infamously - purchased a burger at Russia's new McDonald's clone, 'Tasty, that's it'. Kyeyune sees Carlson's culinary adventure as reminiscent of Mikhail …
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Israeli Economy Contracts 20 Percent, Nagorno-Karabakh To The Future, Bailey Out-y
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The numbers are finally in. Israel’s economy has contracted 20 per cent year on year. It seems the only consolation is that it’s still doing better than the economy of Gaza. How long can this level of decline go on? With no end to the war in sight, and a new front in Lebanon cracking open, are we witnessing Israel’s fall from the first rank of the …
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Deutschland Unter Alles, Chinese Crackers, War Like An Egyptian
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Bloomberg says “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End”. Which poses at least one serious question - has Bloomberg been listening to Multipolarity? As the industrial decline narrative goes mainstream, it seems like the copium has finally run out in the Chancellories of Europe. Meanwhile, reports in the West of a Chinese bus…
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Premium Edition: How To Invade Iran with Malcom Kyeyune
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The US is now bombing Iranian targets, via B1 bombers that have to be flown direct from Texas to perform the task. This is an interesting new form of madness. As the West is pulled ever-deeper into the quagmire, we're taking a low road/high road approach to prediction: attempting to model the potential for serious conflict right up to an Iraq-style…
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From America With Love, Your Country Needs THEM, Self-Immolate After Reading
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All the greatest romances are love/hate. As The Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor of geopolitics, Iran and America have always danced a dance of angry fascination with each other. Now, as the Middle East burns, their kismet is truly aflame. With an overstretched Joe Biden about to call in the airstrikes, we’re in the foxhole, figuring out if they…
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Poseidon With The Enemy, WWIII Pt. 2, Weimargentina
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As the 8th round of Tomahawk missiles hit the Houthis in ten days, a senior White House official caused guffaws when he proclaimed the attacks aren’t working - but that we should keep on doing them anyway. That senior official’s name? Joseph P Biden. So if the President himself can’t come to a logical line on what’s going on, what hope is there for…
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The Price Isn't Right, Lloyd Austin's Day Off, The Magnificent 17
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With the world's biggest container ships presently rounding the Cape of Good Hope, Vasco da Gama-style, the Lads are calling it: inflation is coming back. This could prove to be a sticky situation for the West's leaders. After all, we were supposed to have seen out the worst by now. Everything was wagered on turning the page in anticipation of elec…
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Premium Episode 5: The GAE Strikes Back
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The Global American Empire has had its honour impugned by the Houthi Rebels, sometimes called a 'ragtag army'. But as The Lads point out, that characterisation just doesn't work. High-end weapons, Iranian training, and a capacity to melt into the landscape will make 'winning' the war for control of the Red Sea an operational nightmare. With no clea…
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Canal Plus, Lebanon and On, WFH WTF
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Remember the Ever Given? The boat that got stuck in the Suez Canal? Well, thanks to the Houthis, traffic in the canal is down by almost as much as when it was plugged. It seems the red sea crisis is about to inject an inflation spike much like the one the Ever Given gave us. Only, this time, the memes will be much less jolly. North of Israel, the w…
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Special Edition with Malcom Kyeyune: Red Sea or dead sea?
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This week, we're pulling the scheduled predictions for 2024 episode, to do some century-wide predicting. The Houthi incursion into the Red Sea, that we've been reporting for a couple of months, has reached a new peak. It now seems as though it is more than simply a new front in a regional war. It may even threaten the Pax Americana. US attempts to …
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Special Edition: Carlos Roa - A Washington DC Rake's Progress
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This week on Multipolarity, something a bit different. We want to map the DC brain, from the inside. Somewhere, inside the Washington Beltway, are a bunch of very smart people who often think alike. Be they at the State Department, the Pentagon, CIA, other parts of the Federal government, or think tanks, they have been tasked with projecting the gl…
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Venezuela vs Guyana, The Great Oil Market Gunge Up, Middle East Still On Fire
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Most people have never heard of Guyana. Many think it’s in Africa. But Venezuelans know their CIA World Factbook inside and out. They’ve long claimed that its Western regions are rightfully theirs. And now that the Guyanese have struck oil, the Maduro regime want to take those areas by conquest. The question isn’t can Venezuela - population 30m - k…
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