Each week, members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of the markets and economy. Go deep and listen to the team talk through what's helping guide their decisions.
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Are you learning Japanese and looking for more opportunities to speak? This Podcast drill is exactly for you. Simply repeat after me - while you are commuting, cooking or even in your bed. The drill also includes plain style dialogue, which is an informal style spoken in daily life among friends and family, and also in Anime. Now more shadowing practices are available, too. Have a go and get fluent soon! --- Learning Nihongo is fun, ne. More drills and full transcripts/translations (on your ...
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SWOT analysis of an online MBA.
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NVIDIA is the coolest kid in the class but we're beginning to see a bifurcated economy. Opportunities exist by focusing on quality but a growth scare poses a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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“What kind of movie do you like?” [00:08] Hello everyone. Today we will practice “〜ga suki desu.= I like (something)”. Repeat after me [00:15] 1. Naomi san likes dance. 2. I like karaoke. 3. My younger brother likes soccer. 4. My big sister likes computer game. 5. My grandmother likes cooking. [01:06] Now, answer as follows. For example, [01:09] Wh…
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“In case of rain, it will be postponed.” [00:07] Hello everyone. Let’s start. We practice “〜no baai wa” today. Repeat after me [00:13] 1. In case you don’t have time, next time is fine (you can do it next time). 2. In case your friends are coming too, let us know in advance. 3. In case you don’t eat it right away, you can store it I the freezer. 4.…
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A 40,000 DOW is a strength while there are more cracks in the consumer's facade. Why sell in May when you can just stay? And a no-landing but turbulence ahead appears as a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐3. Moderato] [00:08] Hello everyone. Today we will learn“〜nagara”. Let’s start. Repeat after me [00:16] 1. While jogging, I listen to music. 2. While listening to music, I cook. 3. While cooking, I hum (a tune). (hanauta wo utau = hum (a tune)) 4. While humming, I drive my car. 5. While driving a car, don't use the phone. [01:24] Now, make a sent…
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Inflation. A messy sort of data.
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29:03
Rising earnings expectations are a strength but is the labor market beginning to crack? An opportunity exists to rethink real assets but the threat of decelerating economic growth has arrived.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐2. Andante] VないForm “Please don’t stop studying Japanese.” [00:08] Hello, everyone [00:12] Repeat after me [00:14] Verb. Group I (u-verb) 1. go [masu form > nai form] 2. read 3. sell 4. get on 5. speak/tell 6. lend 7. hurry [01:05] Verb. Group II (ru-verb) 1. eat 2. advise/educate/teach 3. borrow 4. show 5. be [ 01:46] Verb. Group III (Irregular)…
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The Fed is navigating using a rearview mirror
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25:53
A dovish tilt and buybacks are powering the market forward but there's weakness with cracks forming in the consumer facade. Market misconception is providing opportunities for outperformance while bad data and labor issues are a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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39 [✐3]before/after coming
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[✐3.Moderato] Vじしょ+まえに、Vた+あとで “before coming, after coming” Hello, everyone. [00:10] We begin with “Jisho(dictionary)-form + mae ni” today. “I brush my teeth before going to bed. “ [00:22] Listen to the masu-form, and then say in “〜mae ni”. [00:28] For example, tabemasu (eat) → taberu maeni (before I eat) [00:34] Ready? 1. see/watch/look 2. check/f…
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AI momentum continues while a bifurcated consumer is a weakness. AI requires real assets, that's an opportunity while sticky inflation remains a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐2.Andante] Ask for permission "Can I have a coffee to go?” [00:08] Hello, everyone. You listen to the masu form, and then answer “te Form + mo iidesuka” [00:17] For example, tabemasu → tabete moiidesuka??(can I eat?) Ready? [00:23] 1. see/watch/look → is it alright to watch? 2. Sleep → Is it alright to sleep? 3. do → Is it alright to do? 4. come …
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EPISODE 100! "It feels worse than it's been" (the week, not the podcasts)
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Global growth is better than expected but higher mortgage rates are dampening housing. There's opportunity as April showers bring May flowers but the threat grows that the Fed may not even cut rates.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐1. Adagio] Particles [にni] and [でde] (+ [をo]) with basic verbs. “at a convenience store, to a convenience store? “ Hello, everyone. Today, we practice particles” ni”, “de” with basic Verbs. [00:16] Before we start, let me explain quickly about directional particles. Directional particle [にni] can be replaced by another directional particle [へ(e)]…
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King Dollar. Still the safe haven.
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23:23
The dollar is still king while that hot CPI print is a weakness. Opportunity exists in corporate bonds for income, but the unknown unknowns are a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Passive Form: 「おつかいをたのまれました」 [00:07] Hello, everyone. How are you doing? Actually I had a terrible day yesterday. My wallet was stolen! There were many other things (that have happened to me). Change the sentences to the passive form. [00:24] 1. Someone stepped on my foot. → I was stepped on. 2. Dog chased. → I was chased by a dog. 3. Someone broke…
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Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐2.Andante] Telling your experience! [ta-form]+ことがあります “I’ve ever played Pachinko.” [00:07 ] Hello, everyone. We begin with making “ta-form”, which conjucate in the same way as “te-form”, as you know. Let’s start. Repeat after me [00:16] [V-2 / ru-verb] 1. see/look/watch [masu-form] > [ta-form] 2. eat [masu-form] > [ta-form] [00:28] [V−1 / u-verb]…
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The return of supply chain issues?
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17:52
Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but deficits are keeping rates elevated.Annex Wealth Management
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34[✐3]Can be done online.
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[✐3. Moderato] [Potential Verb Form]: can be done. 〜 is possible "Can be done online.” [00:06] Hello, everyone. We learn potential verb (form) today. Let’s start. Repeat after me [00:14] [V-2 group/ru-verb] 1. eat > can be eaten 2. remember > can remember 3. sleep > can sleep [V-1 group/u-verb] 4. learn > can learn 5. work > can work 6. lend > can …
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Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pose a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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[✐1.Adagio] Existence of things and people be (ありますarimasu) for inanimate objects, be (いますimasu) for animate objects Subject maker[が] & theme particle[は] ★★★★★ “Clooney san is there!” [00:06] Hello, everyone. Let’s start. Repeat after me [00:11] 1. There is a pair of glasses here. 2. There is a park over there. 3. There is a café in front of the st…
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We've identified that huge sucking sound
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22:09
Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is the giant sucking sound of liquidity.Annex Wealth Management
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"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
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20:06
The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money into longer dated bonds while a threat of euphoria is beginning.Annex Wealth Management
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Rates and inflation remain sticky
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Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.Annex Wealth Management
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Virtuous cycle to vicious cycle?
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25:33
This week's strengths are the news highs while Fed pushback continues and so does the rise in yields. There is opportunity in the virtuous cycle but commercial real estate is a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Kudos to the Fed's messaging
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22:35
Kudos to the Fed's messaging but hot inflation and cold spending is a threat. One man's garbage is another man's treasure (and opportunity) but watch out for the threat of value traps.Annex Wealth Management
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Trees are growing to the sky while interest rate exposed securities continue to lag. There are opportunities as bad breadth improves but uncertainty remains a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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We're in a good place but there are still signs of stress with some regional banks. Simple opportunities exist by maintaining a balanced portfolio. The Middle East is becoming a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Sticking the soft landing?
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20:07
Almost perfect economic data meets hypersensitive areas in the market. Even with a pullback, there are relative value opportunities while a breaking bad forecast includes the market pricing in aggressive rate cuts.Annex Wealth Management
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Opportunity and Threats as equals?
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21:46
The economic damage has been contained but weakness appears while wrestling with the Fed's communication. Opportunity exists with the Fed NOT tanking the economy--but a threat remains if the Fed DOES wind up tanking the economy.Annex Wealth Management
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The mega map momentum runs into a small cap and earnings retreat. Broadening use of AI is an opportunity while persistent inflation and rise energy costs pose a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Did the market get ahead of itself?
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26:51
The good jobs report might be solidifying the soft landing scenario but a cyclical strength isn't great. Do pullbacks equal opportunity? A threat could emerge when the market doesn't get what it wants.Annex Wealth Management
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2023 in review, 2024 straight ahead.
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Momentum continued but China and the Credit Crunch were a drag. Opportunity exists for active managers while the Fed being slow to react to deteriorating conditions is a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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The Christmas Episode
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18:24
Santa Claus came for small caps but the dollar has been dashing downward. Stock pickers need to do some homework but will it be a blue Christmas for bonds?Annex Wealth Management
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The transition from pause to cut can be bumpy
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17:02
Interest rate sensitive assets are a strength while the Magnificent 7 might be going from magnificent to middling. There is opportunity in the catch-up trade but transitions can be hard.Annex Wealth Management
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Early resolution for 2024? Balance.
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20:53
The buy-the-dip-reflex seems to be strong while the slow slide into stagnation is a weakness. There's an opportunity to get back into balance but data dependence equals skittish investors.Annex Wealth Management
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Chipotle buy-now-pay-later?
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22:42
Besides learning why one of the members of the Investment Team uses buy-now-pay-later for Chipotle, there are plenty of other things to talk about. Yields are down but asset prices are up but is there weakness in the Magnificent Seven? Opportunity might exist in underperforming sectors that are poised to turn but the threat remains whether or not t…
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Two PHDs walk into a podcast....
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30:33
Double PHD's on this episode. Good news IS good news but weak holiday guidance is an issue. Genuine growth is scarce, demands a premium, and is an opportunity while a longer rate pause with faster cuts is a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Are we seeing end of the year FOMO?
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24:43
Santa's sleigh is being pulled by some Bulls --but risk reward is looking risky. Dumpster diving is back on the menu but the Fed is hurting the government more than Warren Buffet.Annex Wealth Management
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It's a cliche, but when do we NOT have volatility?
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18:26
Potential earnings improvement is a strength while mid and small cap stocks underperform. For opportunities; the '40' part of a 60/40 portfolio could have good risk-adjusted returns but rising unemployment is a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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The Powell Pause and the power of lower expectations.
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18:59
What the pause means for fixed income and equity markets is a strength while equity valuations remain a weakness. Expectations are low, that's an opportunity. That along with short positioning has led to a decent rally so far. The Fed remains the threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Who's got bad breadth?
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22:11
Artificial intelligence is here and a definite strength Meanwhile, bad breadth pulls equity returns lower and is a weakness. Look to risk/reward for stock and bonds for opportunities and be mindful of the threat of increasingly tighter conditions.Annex Wealth Management
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Time for a Powell pause?
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19:39
The consumer is like the Energizer Bunny...but bonds shouldn't be this nerve wracking. On the other side, if you can hold them, bonds might be an opportunity. Watch for a rally before reality, because reality eventually bites.Annex Wealth Management
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A busy week for economic data. Plus, a threat to the munchies.
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19:10
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19:10
Classic defensives did their work while the consumer might be starting to crack. Opportunity might exist by looking at what hasn't worked while the Fed could be late to the game....again.Annex Wealth Management
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Does Jawboning Still Work?
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20:08
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20:08
This week will yield plenty of data for experts to inspect. As inflation starts to diminish, Powell may have painted himself into a corner given some of his statements. And given today’s mass/micromedia – is jawboning still an effective tool when it comes to the economy?Annex Wealth Management
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A bit of a lost year for bonds
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16:10
Energy and employment are strengths while yield sensitive assets remain weak. There are opportunities via reasonable valuations and increased bond yields but risk premiums and tight bond spreads pose threats.Annex Wealth Management
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Quality. An often-used term, but what does it mean?
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19:44
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19:44
This quarter, defense has been the best defense. Weakness exists with yields up but everything else down. Opportunities exist to lock in rates and hedge against inflation. Threats include prices the new marginal buyer of Treasurys is going to pay.Annex Wealth Management
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Too much worry over this week's Fed meeting?
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19:07
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19:07
Defensive rotation is a strength while elevated mortgage rates pose a threat. There are opportunities in China and emerging markets but a floor under inflation remains a threat.Annex Wealth Management
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Strength in high yield while Chinese governance is a weakness. Opportunities exist when real dates go down but fiscal policy and Chinese bans post threats.Annex Wealth Management
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Potential pain for consumers?
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20:24
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20:24
Government spending on infrastructure set to ramp up but potential pain ahead for consumers. While markets look to be turning up and it's time to get selective, rising energy prices are inbound.Annex Wealth Management
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