When today's guest was last on this program back in June, he predicted that interest rates would remain "higher for longer".And the ensuing seven months proved him correct.With inflation remaining stubbornly sticky, new tariffs and other disruptive policies announced by Trump administration, $trillions in US Treasury debt to mature this year, and t…

Are investors TOO bullish now?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts is concerned they are. Wall Street is flush with money and throwing it at just about every asset right now.Lance sees a lot of similarities to late 2021/early 2022, right before the over-valued markets corrected by 20%...but many retail investors lost 40-50% of their portfolio wealth bec…

If you have questions about inflation, interest rates, bond yields, Tech stocks, AI, recession risk and jobs, then this video is a must-watch. Today's guest earned well-deserved fame by successfully predicting the 2008 financial crisis.I'm very pleased and honored to welcome to the program economist and educator Dr Nouriel Roubini, the co-founder a…

Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker.As we begin a new year -- with record housing unaffordability, trade wars and a cooling jobs market -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?To find out, we have the good fortu…

Housing expert Melody Wright has updated her outlook on US home prices for 2025, now predicting they will decline nationally.

If you're familiar with the concept of the 4th Turning, it's hard to deny we're in one now.A fourth turning is a societal cycle during which the power structure and institutions that long existed are disrupted and dismantled, and eventually replaced by a new order. Daily now we're seeing an accelerated dismantling of the status quo.Whether you deem…

The market has been tossed a lot of surprises lately -- even a near-black swan (DeepSeek) -- and yet, stocks have shrugged off all the uncertainty.Investor sentiment remains sky-high.And concern of the growing list of risk factors appears quite low.So, is "irrational exuberance" back?That's what portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss in t…

One of the biggest forces boosting both economic growth and asset price appreciation over recent years has been the explosion of higher fiscal deficit spending -- sending the prices of all assets including growth stocks, gold and Bitcoin soaring.Today's guest, analyst Lyn Alden, predicts we'll be stuck with these these large deficits for a long tim…

Tariffs, trade wards, DOGE, deportations -- the disruption has come fast and furious so far during president Trump's first two weeks in office.The non-stop surprises (not to mention the DeepSeek scare) are creating a lot of market volatility, as well as a lot of uncertainty for analysts and pundits .How are we regular investors supposed to navigate…

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor.The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen.What should we expect from the…

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in November, he gave the advice "remain bullish, but be careful"Since then the S&P has increased slightly, but mostly trended sideways.Here at the start of 2025, what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next?And did the shock to investors delivered by China's surprise releas…

Well, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine.The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in…

Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least.Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed ho…

When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile.He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct.But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investo…

Charles Hugh Smith joins me to explain DeepSeek and what it's potential significance isBUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

On this channel we conduct deep-dive discussions with hundreds of experts a year, doing our best to see through their eyes and chart a wise course through the economic waters ahead.But with all the different approaches, opinions and conclusions, it's important to remind ourselves not to overcomplicate things.The fundamentals to wealth building aren…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com…

In his previous appearances on this channel, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, has explained that rising net liquidity been largely responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.Will the good times continue into 2025?Don't count on it, Michael says.To f…

One of the great David Bowie's most popular songs was titled "Changes"Today's guest David Hay, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal, might well steal that title for his expected theme of 2025He sees headwinds that could cause the economy to grow slower than many currently expect.He sees the prices of stocks and bonds at risk. T…

Stephanie Pomboy shares her latest outlook on inflation.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The winds of change are blowing around the globe.74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year.Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda.With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, wha…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next.We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVI…

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, has had a remarkably impressive track record in correctly forecasting the markets over recent years.Having turned bullish near the end of 2022, he remained so ever since, helping his subscribers successfully ride the wave of ferocious back-to-back annual returns of over 20%+ in stocks.He also helped them catc…

Despite the confidence Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is doing his best to project, inflation has not yet been slain.And today's guest expert, Jim Bianco, founder of market research firm Bianco Research, thinks it's going to continue to prove problematic as the return of the "bond vigilantes" increasingly undermines the Fed's efforts.We'll tal…

On this channel, we often highlight abnormalities we notice in the financial markets.Today's guest actively embraces them as gifts from the investment gods. In his words: "Fortunately, the financial markets are often quite inefficient, presenting opportunities for us to generate substantial value for our clients’ portfolios."So, where are the bigge…

The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes.For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year.This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash.But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much …

Today's guest has long warned that the bond market will one day take the printing press away from the Federal Reserve.Well, the Fed has now CUT its policy rate by 100 basis points since September, but the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note is now 100 basis point HIGHER since then.This has flummoxed many investors and mortgage holders. Yet it beg…

Well it's a new year. And in just two weeks, a new American Administration as well.What kind of impact will President-Elect Trump's policies likely have on natural resources, the "real things" that power the global economy?To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a he…

A new bi-weekly show launches today on Thoughtful Money!Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow?And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?To discuss in depth, we're fortunate …

The stock market has seen two consecutive years of 20% returns.Will it see similar returns this year?Highly unlikely, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Complacent bulls hoping for a repeat performance may well find themselves disappointed with 2025.We discuss the reasons why, the latest market technicals, the potential impact of domestic ter…

As we begin a new year, I thought it appropriate to continue Thoughtful Money's ongoing commitment to highlighting the principles components of true wealth -- of which money is simply a means, not the end in itself.Research tells us that true wealth is primarily a function of quality relationships, purpose & health.And today, we're going to drill d…

Today we have the good fortune to hear *another* housing analyst's 2025 outlook for home prices.We're joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app.Nick points out that buying a home has rarely been this expensive in living American history: once was in 1981 when mortgage rates were a whopping 18%. The o…

While 2024 was a fantastic year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well.Instead, 2024 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines as inventory surges.Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices st…

The world is in love with US stocks right now.Valuations are at or near all-time record highs. Same with measures of euphoria and investor confidence in stocks.US stocks have never made up as a great a percentage of global market cap as they do now.Retail investors (including seniors!) have never been this long stocks.As portfolio manager Lance Rob…

Today, we're going to do something a little different on this channel.We're going to interview a highly successful private equity CEO, and yes we'll get his economic & market outlook for 2025. But, we'll also delve into his insights for achieving personal success, in life and business.Graham Weaver is the founder and managing partner of Alpine Inve…

The Fed sent a shock through markets last week when it announced that fewer rates cuts may be needed to reach its policy goals.The S&P immediately sold off by -3% and the Nasdaq and Russell sold off even harder.It this just a curveball that, once digested, won't a matter much to the bull trend?Or, could it have set up a reversal in trend?To discuss…

Well, this interview is being recorded the day after the Federal Reserve spooked markets by slowing the expected pace of future rate cuts.The S&P instantly dropped 3% on the news and bond yields spiked.Is this just temporary heartburn as the markets digest the news?Or might this signal that markets have just peaked?For perspective, we're fortunate …

The Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected.Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked.Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder:Is a Santa Claus rally still likely?Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now?Portfolio manager Lance Robe…

Today's guest expert is the second this week to warn that US financial asset prices appear to be in bubble territory.Is that truly the case?And if so, will the bubble burst in 2025? Or inflate further?Investors have much riding on the answer.To discuss, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected mar…

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers.

As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly.Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs.Positive sentiment -- be it among investors, businesses or consumers -- is suddenly spiking.Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market's good times to continue rolling in 2025?Or, is the optimism overlooking risks -- both valu…

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital alloca…

Stocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds.Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur?Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction ri…

As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street.Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising.But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a…

As 2024 begins to draw to a close, investors are cheering a second blockbuster year in the stock market.And as we enter 2025, will the party continue? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year?Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable, or even a more painful year for investors?I can't thi…

As we head into a new year, there are a lot of questions swirling about money:Will the dollar's strength vs other world currencies continue into 2025?And even if so, will it continue to lose purchasing power vs real things?Will gold continue to be aggressively purchased by the world's central banks? By investors?Is Bitcoin "winning" the store of va…

Stocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!)While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback.We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicato…

Stocks are on track to end 2024 on a high note.The S&P is up roughly 27% so far, hitting new record highs all throughout the year.Will the party continue into the New Year?Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable one for investors?To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.He maintai…