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Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have…
 
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimatel…
 
Sameer Goel, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, discusses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Asian markets, including the complex trade relationships that have knock-on effects on the rest of the world.research.network@db.com
 
With the Fed trying to achieve a soft landing for an economy weathering both high inflation and geopolitical upheaval, Deutsche Bank Research has adjusted its forecasts for rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, speaks with Matthew Barnard, Director of North American Equity Research, and details the numero…
 
In a new episode of the Podzept podcast Marion Laboure and Luke Templeman discuss the financial market implications of banning Russia from the SWIFT payment messaging system. Listen in to learn more about SWIFT, its history, previous bans and its alternatives.research.network@db.com
 
James Brand, Head of European Utility Research discusses with Debbie Jones, Global Head of ESG Company Research the ambitious targets set by Germany's coalition government, arguably Europe's most ambitious decarbonisation targets. The targets aims to transform Germany's power market, reaching 80% renewable generation by 2030 while closing its remai…
 
Nicole DeBlase, lead analyst covering the US Multi-Industry and Machinery Research, speaks with Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, on the macro setup of the sector in 2022. Often said to be a bellwether for the economy, will Industrials be constructive or destructive in 2022 as the US begins to raise interest rates?…
 
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative…
 
In a new podcast our China Chief Economist Yi Xiong and Luke Templeman from our Thematic Research team discuss China's housing activity, which remains weak, and help to explain the implications for growth in China next year.research.network@db.com
 
Many corporates have penciled in a strong rebound in earnings this year backed by forecasts of robust pent-up demand. Yet, so far there is little evidence of the spending surge that so many expect. Corporates are not wrong to anticipate hefty spending; all the right ingredients are there. Savings jumped due to government stimulus and a lack of spen…
 
Liam Fitzpatrick, European Head of Metals and Mining Research interviews Anna Krutikov, Glencore's Head of Sustainability. Climate ambition is increasing rapidly at a global level and investors are demanding that large corporates, such as Glencore, align strategies with the goals of the Paris Agreement and take the necessary action on reducing emis…
 
In this episode we discuss the corporate response to growing biodiversity concerns, which has been slow. The problem is that companies with higher biodiversity risks can find their stock prices underperform. Customer and political scrutiny are amplifying the situation.research.network@db.com
 
We interview Daianna Karaian, Founder and CEO of Today Do This, a firm that works with Blue Chip global corporates to help them achieve specific sustainability goals. We address several big questions that corporates have about exactly how to implement sustainability processes.research.network@db.com
 
We discuss the US economy, in particular what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?research.network@db.com
 
We discuss the key trends of digital currencies; which central banks are leading and lagging the race; the different sets of opportunities, or hurdles even, faced by different countries; and what to expect in terms of regulatory framework looking ahead. Katharina Paust-Bokrezion, Head of payments policy, Political Affairs, joins the conversation.…
 
Being ‘asset-light’ has been Wall Street dogma for years. And no wonder. Over the last decade, US stocks with low levels of Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) have seen double the stock market returns of high PPE stocks. In Europe, the returns have been triple. But could it all come to an end?research.network@db.com
 
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve.…
 
Listen to a podcast episode where we discuss the highlights from a recent ESG conference where sustainability leaders and asset managers discussed key ESG topics as part of focused panels and presentations.research.network@db.com
 
This year's National People's Congress (NPC) will start on Friday, March 5, and will last for about 2 weeks. In this podcast we provide a preview of the key policy issues for the NPC where we expect the government will set a floor growth target at 7-7.5% for 2021, leaving sufficient room to pursue its longer-term policy priorities. The 2021 budget …
 
Covid-19 disruption to business has reshuffled priorities for CFOs and treasurers. They must address how to: maintain access to liquidity/credit; implement back-up procedures; create visibility to total cash in global locations; determine cash requirements in the short and medium term; and assess current exposures. Astrid Poussel, Global Corporate …
 
Nigel Wilson, CEO, Legal & General and Jim discuss how the future is in our own hands and that there are huge opportunities out there in new technologies and strategic investments that can overcome many of the secular negative forces we are all familiar with (debt, demographics, low productivity etc.). However Nigel believes we need to shed our old…
 
Back in early December most thought the chance of Republicans losing both Georgia Senate run-off seats was pretty low. That has now happened, with a so-called blue sweep upon us. About a week until inauguration, we discuss how we think Biden’s initial 100-day+ plan might look like.research.network@db.com
 
Even prior to the pandemic, there was an inevitable shift to online purchasing. But how do we ensure this widening acceptance of online buying does not backfire on the planet in the form of unsustainable delivery levels? We propose a system to bring all parties in the delivery value chain to the table, and suggest an incentive system that grades re…
 
The pandemic has shown how the ‘haves’ are more resilient than the ‘have-nots’. Much of this is based on the gap between the two groups based on their access to technology. The divide in the US runs deepest along race and location (urban versus rural). To narrow this gap, we lay out our vision to develop an initiative that covers the more than half…
 
The 2020 election is now less than a week away. While all elections have implications for the economic outlook, the two candidates for this year’s contest have historically divergent views on essentially all important aspects of economic policy. In this podcast, we consider the implications for the economic outlook of the possible combinations of p…
 
The exponential growth of the digital economy is going to leave large chunks of minorities with little or no access to jobs. We conduct a bottom up societal study and it shows that 76% of Blacks and 62% of Hispanics could get shut out or be under-prepared for 86% of jobs in the US by 2045. If this digital racial gap is not addressed, in one generat…
 
Henrik and Jim discuss a wide range of issues, from globalisation to low interest rates, and then point out some of the nuances of working from home since the pandemic, and how communication within the business is vitally important now more than ever.research.network@db.com
 
Stefan and Jim discuss how Continental has been impacted by COVID 19; within the organisation and with external stakeholders across themes like working from home, where the company is now with ESG – the hottest topic pre pandemic ESG – supply chain issues, the relationship between the US and China and how is Tesla disrupting the market.…
 
The widening generational divide should be a key source of alarm for investors, financial markets and society as a whole. Young people perceive themselves as the losers on issues ranging from housing to climate change to student debt. In turn, this anger is manifesting itself into political outcomes, with elections around the world increasingly fou…
 
As long as they are covered by salary protection schemes, those on low incomes have seen their paycheque relatively more insulated than those on higher incomes. Other redistributionist measures also mean the rich are likely to face a higher burden, thus reducing inequality.research.network@db.com
 
The US-China Tech Cold War remains one of the biggest tail risks of the current market rally. We have conducted a top-down analysis to quantify the impact of a complete decoupling. Our study on stock price correlations with the DB Tech Cold War Index yields a surprising and counter-intuitive finding, Semiconductors. Listen to a new podcast with Apj…
 
Children, interruptions, loneliness, and an unsuitable workplace has left many frustrated as they attempt to work from home. We do the sums to see if businesses should subsidise their employees’ housing costs so they can save on expensive office space.research.network@db.com
 
We are going through a tremendous volatile market with investors looking for stable returns. According to a few news outlets some of the quant funds have performed less well. Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring share their insights on common misconceptions.…
 
A confluence of factors - a pandemic, high education costs, environmental concerns, and new instructional technology - could rapidly increase the popularity of online education. Moreover, because online platforms transcend political boundaries, top universities could gain more market share on a global level, leading to the disappearance of many les…
 
The unique nature of the pandemic shock and the wide uncertainty surrounding it, meant there was no one historical playbook that fit easily. So inevitably there were going to be some surprises. In the event, there have been many.research.network@db.com
 
Machine learning, with all of their processing power, they’re able to more quickly highlight or find patterns in big data that would have otherwise been missed by human beings. Machine learning is a tool that can be used to enhance humans’ abilities to solve problems and make informed inferences on a wide range of problems, much wider than financia…
 
Online food ordering (both grocery delivery and meal kits) was already seeing steady growth before covid-19. Since the outbreak, it has taken off. While some people may revert back to their old habits when the pandemic recedes, many have been introduced to the concept and will continue to enjoy the benefits.…
 
While history shows us that it can take over two years for an aviation demand shock to return to normal, many people now forecast a permanent drop in travel, particularly for business. We argue business and personal travel will remain, however, the way people book will change the transport industry.research.network@db.com
 
With European football leagues on hold, clubs are facing severe losses that will likely continue over into next season. The transfer market has also been highly disrupted. Not all clubs have shareholders with deep pockets and so there is likely to be a widening of inequality between the big and small clubs.…
 
One of the lead features in the latest Konzept edition concerns whether the Coronavirus will end up being deflationary or inflationary. We have Robin Winkler, FX Strategist in the red corner fighting for his deflationary views and Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist in the blue corner countering with his inflationary views. Jim Reid, Global Head of Fun…
 
After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshado…
 
It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist…
 
Even with the best strikers in the world on your team, you wouldn’t play without a goalkeeper – so why run a risk asset portfolio without an effective defensive overlay? Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring explain.research.network@db.com
 
The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.research.network@db.com
 
There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX?…
 
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