Manage episode 366284220 series 2797437
MOST AMERICANS UNHAPPY
Voters remain politically split 50-50 but just about 100% are unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and their political leaders. Biden’s approval is frozen in place despite the debt ceiling deal and a recovering stock market; yet Trump’s numbers are also unshaken after an unprecedented federal indictment.
BIDEN AND TRUMP STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS
- President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 43% and Donald Trump continues to lead their 2024 matchup, by 6 points this month. The poll covers public opinion on the Trump federal indictment, electric vehicles and policy issues like parental rights.
AMERICANS THINK THE CASE AGAINST TRUMP IS STRONG BUT WANT A PARDON
- 58% of Americans think the case against Trump is strong, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans.
- Voters are split 51-49, down party lines, on whether Trump’s indictment is reason to withdraw from the 2024 race.
- If Trump is convicted, 53% of voters – driven by 80% of Republicans – support pardoning him in the interest of national unity.
MORE VOTERS PREFER TO LIVE IN A STATE WITH A REPUBLICAN-LEANING SLATE OF POLICIES
- 64% of voters say they would want to live in a state that cuts taxes, encourages public charter schools, does not allow gender surgery for minors, and restricts most abortions after six weeks.
- By contrast 66% of voters – including a majority of all parties – say they would not want to live in a state that has increasing taxes, restricts legal gun ownership more strictly, allows abortion up to 9 months, allows minors to get gender surgery without parental permission, encourages undocumented immigrants, and allows felons to vote.
TRUMP AND BIDEN STRENGTHEN THEIR 2024 POSITIONS
- Even after the indictment, 59% of Republicans would choose Trump in a GOP primary and he would beat Biden in a general election 45-39 (one point closer than last month).
- Biden has strengthened his position with 62% support among Democratic voters in a primary – but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is in second at 15% and his personal favorability rating is 21 points above water.
AMERICANS OPPOSE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATES
- Americans are split 50-50 on supporting the $7500 tax credit subsidy for an EV purchase.
- 59% of voters oppose government regulations that would require at least half of all cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric.
- Americans still like gas cars: 64% think they are better vehicles than EVs.
- Voters are split on the net climate effect of EVs: Half of Americans, including most Republicans and Independents, think EVs produce just as much pollution through the car battery mining and production process.
AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH SCHOOLS BUT WANT STRONGER PARENTAL RIGHTS
- 74% of parents with school-aged children, including majorities of all parties, think schools are respecting their rights as parents.
- 77% of voters oppose a law in their state that would allow minors to get gender-changing surgery and puberty blockers without parental permission, including 66% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.
The June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts.