In this episode, we contrast corporate optimism against a backdrop of enduring inflation, address the financial pressures facing low-income consumers and the distress signals from rising subprime delinquencies, and examine the unexpected challenges in the mass-market adoption of EVs. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:10 Prevailing Optimism 00:01:50 Low-I…

In this episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, the surprising job market data, a soft European economy, and tech giants' AI-driven performance 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:15 Decoding the Fed's Signals 00:03:18 Soft Signals from Europe's Economy 00:04:21 Natural Gas Inventory Surprises 00:05:06 Tech Earnings and AI 00:07:58 Meta…

In this episode, we explore the potential soft landing, consumer spending resilience, Tesla's AI ambitions in the EV market, Boeing's challenges, and the big week ahead in big tech earnings.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer and analyze macro takeaways from earnings calls ahead of the Fed meeting this week.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from the first 3 weeks of earnings season. The key trend is the softening trends in the economy, the state of the EV market and the stabilization in cloud.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the takeaways from Jackson Hole, reflections on the state of the consumer from retailers, and the blowout quarter that Nvidia just hard.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode we discuss signs of stability in the economy, reflections on the long-term implications of higher rates, and the impact of Taylor Swift on the economy.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss key gleanings from the earnings season including takeaways on bank earnings, inflation, and AI.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

This week, we discuss the slight softening trends from the big retailers that reported last week. We also discuss Tesla and AI and the Fed talk about more potential rate hikes. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Softening Trends 00:01:50 Inflation Still High 00:04:00 Tesla and AI 00:07:33 The State of the Supply Chains 00:08:30 Nuggets of Wi…

In this episode, we discuss the key points from the Fed press conference last week, the incoming data on the state of the economy, and the banking crisis. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Pausing Soon? 00:01:08 Hot or Cold? 00:03:31 Troubled Regional Banks 00:05:57 What's Different This Time? 00:07:42 CRE Exposure 00:10:12 ChatGPT Crushing…

In this episode, we discuss the recent developments in the banking industry with the demise of First Republic and some key takeaways from big tech earnings calls. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Softening Trends 00:01:23 The Impact of the End of First Republic 00:04:46 What will the Fed Do? 00:06:55 Price-Driven Growth 00:08:38 TakeAways …

In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from US bank's Q1 2023 earnings and more. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Slowly Declining 00:02:18 What Will the Fed Do? 00:03:18 Banks are Stable For Now 00:04:42 Credit Metrics Look Good 00:06:23 On Semis and Pool Demand 00:08:20 Freight Recession 00:09:10 Tesla Slashing Prices 00:11:06 Big…

In this episode marking the start to the new earnings season, we discuss how banks and the Fed are responding to the recent baking crisis, the state of the consumer Buffett's take on AI Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Banking Stress Calms Down 00:01:56 How Will the Fed React? 00:05:23 Is The Banking Crisis Over? 00:07:03 The Car Market 00…

In this episode, we discuss our key takeaways from the Q4 2022 earnings calls. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 The Banking Crisis 00:02:55 Consumers Are Still Spending 00:04:22 The Era of AI 00:08:40 Earnings Season Begins Soon 00:10:11 ConclusionScott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the distress in financial markets that started in banking, how the Fed is responding to it, and what C-suite execs are saying about it. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:05 Distress in the Markets 00:01:45 Too Soon To Tell 00:02:57 The Fed Responds 00:03:33 It’s Quarter End This Week 00:05:24 It’s the Liquidity Stup…

In this episode, we examine the developments in the banking world in the last week or so and the implications these have on financial markets and on the Fed rate hike.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we analyze the happenings in the banking world last week that started with the fall of the Silicon Valley Bank. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 The Rapid Fall of SVB 00:02:14 The 3 Banks That Failed 00:05:12 Contagion Effects? 00:09:15 Goliath is Winning 00:12:26 Conclusion…

In this episode, we discuss last week's statements by Fed governors, the still-strong consumer spending and the hype around AI. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Waiting for Data 00:01:38 Consumer Spending Still Strong 00:02:10 Slowing Retail Comps 00:03:38 The State of the Energy and Materials Markets 00:05:26 Back to 1990s? 00:10:39 Conclusion…

In this episode we discuss the pesky inflation, the state of retail and takeaways from the Berkshire 2022 shareholder letter Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Pesky inflation 00:00:58 Pressured but Spending 00:02:05 Softening Labour Markets? 00:03:39 Takeaways from Retailers 00:05:51 Week ahead 00:09:59 Conclusion…

In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer, the impact of UID2 on advertising, and how things are going with ChatGPT. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:13 Consumer is Still Partying 00:01:31 Service Inflation Still Sticky 00:02:45 No Hurricane Yet 00:03:22 UID 2.0 00:05:44 ChatGPT Attracting Criticism 00:08:15 Back to Office at Amaz…

In this episode, we dissect the gleanings from the latest post-FOMC press conference and the takeaways from tech earnings.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the resiliency of consumer spending, the sticky services inflation, and the era of AI.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss how companies are preparing for a mild recession, the developing decade of AI and the status of the reopening of China. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Mild Recession Ahead 00:02:12 Will the Fed Slow Down? 00:04:36 Pace of Decline in VC Investments Slows Down 00:05:32 The Decade of AI 00:09:38 Nearshoring and…

In our first episode of the earnings season, we discuss our key takeaways from the big banks that reported including takes on credit quality, the possibility of a hurricane coming and the state of the consumer. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Big Banks Report 00:01:01 5% is the Place to Be 00:01:56 Consumer Dipping into Savings and Credit…

In the first episode of the new year, we discuss what has changed since the holidays and we preview the Q4 2022 earnings season. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 A Cooling Down 00:01:55 Inflation Cooling in Europe 00:03:03 Inflation in Services 00:05:52 A Hunkering for Fries 00:06:49 The AI revolution 00:09:19 Weakening Data Center Demand …

In this episode, we review the year 2022 through quotes from earnings calls and also track the incredible growth we have had at The Transcript. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Year of Worries 00:01:51 The Fed Behind the Curve 00:04:51 Inflation Peaked 00:06:41 The End of an Era 00:08:22 Looking into 2023 00:10:04 Incredible Growth at Th…

In this episode, we discuss the signs of slow down in spending, how companies are prepping for a hurricane and the impact ChatGPT is having. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 There is a slowdown 00:02:28 Companies Prepping for a Hurricane 00:04:26 The 2% Trend 00:06:11 IT Budgets under Pressure 00:08:04 The ChatGPT Moment 00:11:07 Conclusio…

In this episode, we discuss the recent comments from the Fed on slowing down rate increases, the surprising strength in the industrial segments, and the impact of the Zero-covid policy in China. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:12 Slowing Down The Pace 00:01:12 Entrenched Inflation Psychology? 00:05:29 Strength in Industrial Customers 00:07:3…

In this episode, we host Sean Stannard-Stockton who is the president and chief investment officer of Ensemble Capital Management and is a regular reader of our newsletter. We discuss his takeaways from the latest Q3 22 earnings from companies in their portfolio including Mastercard, Starbucks, Ferrari, Home Depot, and Netflix.…

In this episode, we discuss the signals from freight companies on weakening demand, the FTX saga, and the Meta U-Turn Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Inflation Going Down? 00:03:09 The Crypto Crisis 00:07:54 The Meta U-Turn 00:09:36 Semis and the Energy Transition 00:10:06 ConclusionScott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the musings from the Fed meeting last week, the challenged ad markets, and the state of energy markets in Europe Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 The Fed is Staying the Course 00:03:54 Europe is Weak 00:05:24 Mexico a Beneficiary of Reshoring 00:07:05 Weak Ad Spend 00:08:52 A Warm Welcome to the New Subscribers…

In this episode, we are joined by Brad Freeman, author of the newsletter Stock Market Nerd, to discuss key takeaways from tech earnings. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:43 Resilient consumer starting to get jittery 00:03:00 Some Weakness in Spending? 00:04:09 Meta Worries 00:09:19 Weaknesses in Cloud emerging as growth moderates 00:13:45 Wea…

In this special episode (Episode 80), we host former hedge fund manager Marc Rubinstein to discuss the key takeaways from Banks' Q3 22 earnings calls. Marc is the author of Net Interest and writes for Bloomberg Opinion. He covers financial sector themes. We are also joined by Brian Gilmartin, CFA from Trinity Asset Management who writes the blog Fu…

In this episode, we discuss the deteriorating corporate confidence, the impact of the strong dollar on US earnings, and explore whether air travel has experienced a permanent structural change. We also preview tech earnings that flood in this week. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Declining Corporate Confidence 00:02:03 The Strong Dollar 0…

In this special episode, we are joined by Jesse Felder to discuss the macro takeaways from our recent newsletters including the Fed's fight with inflation, the heightened recession risks, the distress in financial markets, and the early innings of a commodity super-cycle. Show Notes [00:00:00] Introduction [00:00:15] The Fed’s Hard Time with Inflat…

In this episode, we discuss the signs that consumer spending may be softening, the hope that inflation may start to slow soon, and the signs of heavy stress in the financial system. We also preview the Q3 earnings season as banks kick off the season this Friday.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we dissect the key takeaways from Jerome Powell's press conference last week, tackle the prevailing inflationary psychology, and check out a few developments in Electric Vehicles vs ICEs.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the state of the consumer and consumer spending, the decline in FedEx volumes and what it means for the recession outlook, and why the big 3 in cloud will be hard to compete with. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:12 Slowdown or Shifting Demand? 00:02:13 The State of the Consumer 00:05:34 Recession Watch 00:06:48 En…

In this episode, we discuss the focus of the Fed on fighting inflation until the job is done, the trends in e-commerce and how companies are trying to find the optimal WFH/WFO mix. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Until the Job is done 00:02:36 If we are in a recession, consumers don’t know it 00:03:04 Post-Pandemic Blues 00:07:57 Worried …

Welcome to Episode 73 of The Transcript Podcast where we discuss the key themes and takeaways from the Q2 2022 earnings calls. This is a special episode of a recording of a Twitter Spaces conversation we held on Wednesday, 31st August 2022 with our guests Sam Ro of Tker.co and Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Show Notes 00:00:00: Introduction …

In this episode, we discuss takeaways from Jackson Hole, the shifting spending patterns of high-income consumers, and the post-pandemic blues of some covid winners. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 No Resting Until the Job is Done 00:02:44 Emerging Markets Feeling the Heat 00:03:29 Trading Down from High Income Consumers 00:06:30 Post-Pand…

In this episode, we discuss key takeaways from the retailers' Q2 results, the implications of falling used car prices and how streaming companies are eyeing a piece of the live sports market. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:30 A lot of conficting data 00:03:03 Retailers working through excess inventory 00:03:52 Consumer demand weak in certai…

In this special episode, we host tech/semiconductors analyst Eric Jhonsa to discuss key takeaways from earnings for the semiconductor industry. Eric writes columns for Real Money and live-blog earnings at The Street and was previously at Seeking Alpha focusing on tech news coverage, and a writer for The Motley Fool. Show Notes 00:00:00: Introductio…

In this week's episode, we discuss key takeaways from the Fed press conference, how companies are preparing for a recession and the big tech earnings. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:15 What is a Recession? 00:02:40 Debt markets are reeling 00:04:29 COVID-era trends are reversing 00:05:57 Some Early Recession Indicators 00:07:22 Meta: From S…

In this week's episode, we cover that CEOs not seeing a downturn as imminent from their data, the challenging ad environment for Snapchat, earnings not as bad as expected for Netflix, and look at the week ahead in tech earnings.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In the special episode, we host former hedge fund manager Marc Rubinstein to discuss the key takeaways from Banks' Q2 22 earnings calls. Marc is the author of Net Interest and writes for Bloomberg Opinion. He covers financial sector themes. Show Notes: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:01:30 What Happens During Earnings Season? 00:04:25 The US Banking Indus…

Summary: This week's episode is all about key takeaways from banks' Q2 earnings, the state of the semiconductor industry, and Elon Musk vs TwitterScott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we are joined by special guest Sam Ro to discuss key takeaways from our newsletter this week and to preview Q2 earnings season that starts this week,Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya

In this episode, we discuss the fed call, whether demand is really softening and Facebook taking on Tiktok. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:15 Demand Softening? 00:02:27 The Fed Call 00:04:30 Brakes on the Housing Market 00:06:20 A Lot of Talk about Oil 00:08:11 Facebook Takes on Tiktok 00:12:37 Conclusion…

In this episode, we discuss takeaways from the Fed press conference last week, the slight uptick in delinquency rates, and the emerging opportunities in restructurings.Scott Krisiloff and Erick Mokaya