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NAB Morning Call

Phil Dobbie

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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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show series
 
Tuesday 5th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is Donald Trump’s bark worse than his bite? At the last moment President Trump has stalled tariffs on Mexico for a month to give them time to negotiate a deal. As yet, no similar reprieve for Canada but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points…
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Monday 4th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Now tariffs are real, well, they will be tomorrow, with 25% imposed by the US on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China, do we need to rethink expectations for global growth, inflation and monetary policy? Phil …
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Friday 31st Janaury 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the high price of housing is a function of supply and demand. Supply just isn’t keeping up with the growth in the population. But is that the on…
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Friday 31st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB …
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Thursday 30th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB W…
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Wednesday 29th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today. Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a…
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Tuesday 28th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If i…
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Friday 24th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by d…
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Friday 24th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on ex…
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Thursday 23rd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularl…
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Wednesday 22nd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the m…
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Tuesday 21st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the i…
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Monday 20th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the …
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Friday 17th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined …
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Friday 17th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Ca…
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Thursday 16th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer num…
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Wednesday 15th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump wi…
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Tuesday 14th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the l…
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Monday 13th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, …
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Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the s…
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Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight revers…
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Thursday 19th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely ne…
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Wednesday 17th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were surprised overnight by the increased in UK wages. Alongside the weakness in European data lately, the yield spread between the UK and Germany is now at its highest level since the reunification of Germany in 1990. O…
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Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US growth continues to lead the way. The latest PMIs showed services growth for Europe and the UK, but not as much as the US. In all cases, though, there’s a fall in the manufacturing PMI. The US strength helped push equities highe…
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Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are rele…
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Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will hav…
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Friday 13th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a…
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Thursday 12th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities pushed higher today as US CPI provided no surprises, or any reason for the fed to deviate from their expected rate cut next week. The Bank of Canada managed a 50bp rate cut yesterday, but it’s likely that cuts will be…
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Wednesday 11th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, henc…
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Tuesday 10th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Beijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expe…
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Monday 9th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw p…
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Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better…
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Friday 6th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US releases non-farm payrolls data later today, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if anything is going to shift expectations for a cut by the Fed this month it will be the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile words from Jerome Powell, that …
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Thursday 5th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a ra…
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Wednesday 4th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturne…
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Tuesday 3rd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Will Marine Le Penne push all the way to bring down the Barnier government in France? She said on Monday she would support a n confidence vote in the government but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, that would force a more const…
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Monday 2nd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data to…
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Friday 29th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the …
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Friday 29th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading econ…
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Thursday 28th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the…
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Wednesday 27th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB No big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will ha…
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Tuesday 26th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, sa…
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Monday 25th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday highlighted the difference between US exceptionalism and European pessimism. NAB's Ray Attrill explains how PMIs were higher than expected in America, lower than anticipated for the EU. Phil asks how much of the difference i…
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Friday 22nd November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the …
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Friday 22nd November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path …
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Thursday 21st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there w…
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Wednesday 20th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray A…
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Tuesday 19th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says …
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Monday 18th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB…
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Friday 15th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning high…
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