Black Sea tensions and trade deals cloud U.S. commodity prices | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben reflect on further developments in the Black Sea region and a new trade deal between China and Brazil.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» December 2024 corn down $.05 at $4.24

» December 2025 corn down $.09 at $4.32

» January 2025 soybeans down $.24 at $9.85

» November 2025 soybeans down $.16 at $10.10

» December soybean oil down 4.31 cents at 41.21 cents/lb

» December soybean meal up $3.40 at $293.70/short ton

» December 2024 wheat down $.12 at $5.35

» July 2025 wheat down $.09 at $5.72

» December 2024 cotton up 6.58 cents at 73.20 cents/lb

» December 2025 cotton up 1.65 cents at 72.27 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil down $.25 at $68.92/barrel

Weekly highlights:

The leading indicators of the US economy index dropped 0.3% last month due to higher jobless claims, fewer building permits and a decline in manufacturing orders. Still there is little sign that the current four-year expansion is ending- just slowing.

US consumer sentiment was up in November to 71.8 from 70.5 in October- the highest monthly reading since April 2024.

US energy stocks were mostly higher on the week with crude oil up 23 million gallons, gasoline up 86 million gallons, and ethanol 22 million gallons. Distillate fuel stocks were down 5 million gallons. Energy prices continue to ease as talk of a ceasefire in the Middle East grow.

US ethanol production pulled back from its record high volume of 327 million gallons to 326 million gallons. Ethanol production has been a supportive fundamental for the US corn market this summer and fall.

Open interest was up week over week for wheat (+0.3%), corn (+0.1%), soybean (+5.1%), and soybean meal (+0.7%), while down for soybean oil (-1.7%), cotton (-3.2%), and rough rice (+10.9%).

Money managers were mixed on the commodities this week but the whole complex returned to a net short position. Traders sold off 10,516 contracts of wheat, 13,165 contracts of soybeans, 19,084 contracts of soybean oil, 36,069 contracts of soybean meal, and 22,136 contracts of cotton while buyers of corn and rough rice by 4,639 and 530 contracts, respectively.

US Cattle on Feed as of November 1st totaled 11.986 million head or 100.3% of last year. That was slightly higher than the pre-report estimates of 99.9%. October placements were 105.3%, above expectations while placements marketings were 104.7%, slightly below expectations of 105.2%.

US export sales were mixed on the week- corn sales of 58.8 million bushels were down week over week while soybean sales of 68.4 million bushels exceeded all pre-report expectations. Grain sorghum and wheat sales of 4.8 and 20.2 million bushels were solid.

This week’s grain and oilseed export inspections report was slightly bullish with corn inspections at 35.6 million bushels, coming in above pre-report expectations and wheat shipments of 13.2 million bushels at a two-month high.

US winter wheat conditions were reported at 55% good to excellent this week- up from 49% last week and well above pre-report expectations of 51%.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Escalation in Blach Sea region

» New ag trade deal between Chin and Brazil

» Impact of Trump Administration cabinet selections

» Reports to watch

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