The soybean market might have raised its floor | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben dive weigh strong soybean crush numbers against heightened Brazilian soybean expectations.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» March 2025 corn up $.14 at $4.84

» December 2025 corn up $.06 at $4.56

» March 2025 soybeans up $.09 at $10.34

» November 2025 soybeans down $.04 at $10.27

» March soybean oil about flat at 45.69 cents/lb

» March soybean meal down $1.10 at $297.20/short ton

» March wheat up $.08 at $5.38

» July 2025 wheat up $.06 at $5.60

» March 2025 cotton up 0.59 cents at 67.60 cents/lb

» December 2025 cotton up 0.26 cents at 69.12 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil up $0.77 at $75.75/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief when the December inflation readings reported in the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index were not higher than expected- as some feared. Prices move higher in December but were largely as expected with annual readings for the PPI at 3.3% and the CPI at 2.9%.

US energy stocks were mixed on the week- crude oil stocks fell 82.4 million gallons, while gasoline and distillate stocks were higher 245.8 and 129.2 million gallons, respectively. Gasoline stocks increased for the 9th straight week. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% from recent volumes.

US ethanol production decreased for the third straight week to 322 million gallons from 324 million the week prior, but production remains well above the 310 million gallons this time last year. Ethanol stocks increased 36 million gallons on the production increase and lower implied demand.

Soybean crush in December by National Oilseed Processors Association members was 206.6 million bushels- up the average of 205.5 million pre-report estimate, 193.2 million bushels in November 2024 prior and 195.3 million bushels in December 2023. The volume was a new single month record for any month of the year.

It was a bullish week for feed grains in the export market with corn and wheat sales of 40.3 and 18.9 million bushels, respectively, coming in above all pre-report expectations. Soybean sales of 20.9 million bushels were in the middle of expectations and there were no grain sorghum sales.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds increased 6.7% on the week. Producers and merchants were net sellers on the week of 179,249 contracts while money managers were net buyers of 122,026 to establish the largest net long position since September 2023.

Grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed. Corn inspections of 60.7 million bushels were a marketing year high and above all pre-report expectations while soybean and wheat inspections of 35.8 and 9.6 million bushels, respectively, were below all pre-report expectations.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Brazil adjusts soybean expectations

» Strong soybean crush numbers continue

» Inflationary numbers fall within expectations

» Reports to watch

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