USDA raises 2025 beef production | Weekly Livestock Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

On this episode of Weekly Livestock Market Update, Brownfield's Meghan Grebner talks with ag economist Charley Martinez about USDA raising 2025 beef production, supply and demand numbers, and more.

Market highlights:

Live cattle prices close 20 cents higher than last week at $197/cwt. February live cattle prices were up $3.30 compared to a week ago, and January feeder cattle future prices were up $7 on the week up to $272.35. Choice box beef was at $332.84 end of this week, which is up from $325.24 last week. Cash hogs were 31 cents lower this week at $79/cwt. February lean hog futures were up $1.40 to $82.55 on the week. Pork cutout values were up 47 cents from a week ago, to $92.02/cwt this week.

Weekly Slaughter:

At the end of the week, cattle slaughter was 579,000 head, up from 471,000 last week, and 51,000 head higher than last year. Hog slaughter was 2.384 million head, up 526,000 from the previous week and up 263,000 compared to year ago.

Supply and Demand:

• In proteins - Red meat and poultry production for 2024 was lowered due to November production data and expectations for slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production was also lowered due to the national layer flock being culled because of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling reported in December.
• Beef - 2025 beef production was raised because of higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024. This equates to a 125-million-pound increase on 2025 estimates. The adjustment up leaves 2025 beef production still down 4.42% compared to 2024 beef production. 2025 Q1 is expected to be higher in 2025 compared to 2024, but Q2-Q4 expectations are expected to be much lower than 2024. Steer price was adjusted up $5/cwt to $196/cwt on average in 2025, with Q3 ($196/cwt) and Q4 ($198/cwt) being at or above the yearly average.
• Pork - 2025 pork production was raised 140 million pounds due to increases in farrowing and pig crop data. This equates to 722 million more pounds expected in 2025 compared to 2024. Total production in 2025 is expected to be 2.59% higher than 2024. Each quarter in 2025 is expected to be high than 2024 quarterly production numbers. Prices were adjusted up $1/cwt up to $63/cwt. Which would be approximately $1.50 higher than last year’s average. Prices are expected to elevate through the year up to $70/cwt.

Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Report:

Texas was 5% up compared to a year ago. Oklahoma was 2% down compared to a year ago. Montana was up 15% compared to a year ago.

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