Player FM - Internet Radio Done Right
17 subscribers
Checked 12d ago
Добавлено четыре года назад
Контент предоставлен Establish The Run - NFL Premium. Весь контент подкастов, включая эпизоды, графику и описания подкастов, загружается и предоставляется непосредственно компанией Establish The Run - NFL Premium или ее партнером по платформе подкастов. Если вы считаете, что кто-то использует вашу работу, защищенную авторским правом, без вашего разрешения, вы можете выполнить процедуру, описанную здесь https://ru.player.fm/legal.
Player FM - приложение для подкастов
Работайте офлайн с приложением Player FM !
Работайте офлайн с приложением Player FM !
Establish The Run - NFL Premium
Отметить все как (не)прослушанные ...
Manage series 2788417
Контент предоставлен Establish The Run - NFL Premium. Весь контент подкастов, включая эпизоды, графику и описания подкастов, загружается и предоставляется непосредственно компанией Establish The Run - NFL Premium или ее партнером по платформе подкастов. Если вы считаете, что кто-то использует вашу работу, защищенную авторским правом, без вашего разрешения, вы можете выполнить процедуру, описанную здесь https://ru.player.fm/legal.
The best football information available. Period.
…
continue reading
187 эпизодов
Отметить все как (не)прослушанные ...
Manage series 2788417
Контент предоставлен Establish The Run - NFL Premium. Весь контент подкастов, включая эпизоды, графику и описания подкастов, загружается и предоставляется непосредственно компанией Establish The Run - NFL Premium или ее партнером по платформе подкастов. Если вы считаете, что кто-то использует вашу работу, защищенную авторским правом, без вашего разрешения, вы можете выполнить процедуру, описанную здесь https://ru.player.fm/legal.
The best football information available. Period.
…
continue reading
187 эпизодов
Все серии
×E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, Andrew Wiggins, Cody Main, and Mike Leone go position-by-position through the main slate for Super Bowl LIX. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

(All betting lines mentioned here were available on DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.) Super Bowl LIX Matchup 6:30 PM ET Game Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Team Totals: Chiefs 25, Eagles 23.5 My favorite Patrick Mahomes -related Super Bowl prop bets concern his rushing output. It’s no secret by now that Mahomes tends to run more in the playoffs, while Sunday’s matchup with Philly’s arguably league-best defense may necessitate Mahomes forcing more on his plate in an environment where Kansas City risks struggling to generate consistent down-to-down offense. Designed runs have had no place in HC Andy Reid ’s playbook throughout Mahomes’ career, but I believe Mahomes’ needle-moving 10-yard rushing score in Kansas City’s AFC Championship win over Buffalo could encourage Reid to get more aggressive in that capacity here. I took “ladders” on Mahomes to run for 25+ yards (-167), 40+ yards (+155), 50+ yards (+257), and 60+ yards (+428) plus Mahomes to come within 9.5 yards of Jalen Hurts ’ rushing total (-115) and Mahomes to outrush Hurts straight up (+135). For a longshot, I also sprinkled Mahomes to rush for 10+ yards in each quarter at 25-to-1 odds. Through two playoff affairs, Kareem Hunt has out-snapped Isiah Pacheco 62 to 35 and out-touched Pacheco 27 to 12. I’m not excited about Hunt’s Super Bowl props against Philadelphia’s immensely talented defensive front, but I don’t think betting on Hunt to score two-plus touchdowns is crazy at +950 odds. Mahomes’ playoff target distribution: Xavier Worthy 13; Travis Kelce 12; Marquise Brown 7; JuJu Smith-Schuster 4; Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins , and Noah Gray 3; Hunt and Samaje Perine 2. … Locked in as K.C.’s No. 1 wideout at this point, Worthy has logged an 82% postseason playing-time rate while leading the team in targets and staying involved consistently as a rusher with at least two carries in four of his last five appearances. His odds to score two-plus touchdowns in Super Bowl LIX are 12 to 1. … 35-year-old Kelce told reporters this week that he has no plans to retire if Kansas City three-peats. I still think this has a chance to be a legacy game for arguably football’s best-ever receiving TE versus his brother’s former team, which hasn’t contained tight ends lately. Tucker Kraft caught all five of his targets against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. Tyler Higbee dropped 7/54/1 receiving on Philly in the Divisional Round. In the NFCCG, Zach Ertz went off on the Birds (11/104/0), and Commanders backup TE Ben Sinnott caught his lone target for a gain of 23. … I put longshot sprinkles on underrated Chiefs No. 2 TE Noah Gray to score this game’s first TD (30 to 1) and last TD (55 to 1). Gray has played 49% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps this postseason. … Rotating Chiefs Nos. 2-4 WRs Brown, Smith-Schuster, and Hopkins all feel like tough-to-stomach dart throws from a box-score projection standpoint against Philly’s shutdown cornerback trio of Quinyon Mitchell , Cooper DeJean , and Darius Slay . Through three playoff games, Next Gen Stats has charged Mitchell and DeJean with a combined five catches and 24 scoreless yards permitted on 15 targets with a 0:2 TD-to-INT ratio allowed. My favorite Super Bowl LIX MVP bet is Saquon Barkley (+260). The Eagles obviously need to win the game — they have the more talented roster — while Kansas City’s recent run-defense downturn opens the door for Barkley to go ballistic on the ground. James Cook and Joe Mixon combined to tag the Chiefs for 31/173/3 (5.6 YPC) rushing in the Divisional and AFCCG Rounds after Kansas City played below-average run defense for most of the second half of the regular season. Again — assuming the Eagles win — awarding Barkley Super Bowl MVP would be a way for voters to quasi-compensate for voting in another quarterback as regular-season MVP. It certainly helps that stud Eagles LG Landon Dickerson (knee) and C Cam Jurgens (back) have returned to full strength following a two-week layoff after both toughed out Philadelphia’s NFCCG win. Neither lineman is on the Super Bowl injury report. Jalen Hurts has cleared 30 pass attempts just once since Week 4 and reached 250 passing yards in only one of his last 13 games. I’m skeptical Hurts’ left knee is back to 100% after it clearly hindered him in the NFC Championship Game; Hurts’ 16 rushing yards against Washington were his fewest all season. I took the under on Hurts rushing for 38.5 yards at -108 odds against Kansas City. Hurts’ playoff target distribution: A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert 18; DeVonta Smith 12; Barkley 8; Kenneth Gainwell 3; Jahan Dotson 2; Grant Calcaterra 1. … Brown’s 2024 box-score production was all over the place mainly due to Philadelphia’s run-heavy approach. He’s a boom-bust wager as usual against Kansas City’s stingy perimeter pass coverage. Chiefs No. 1 CB Trent McDuffie has asserted himself as a borderline shutdown corner, while previously-injured No. 2 CB Jaylen Watson resumed near-full-time duties against Buffalo. … Goedert’s Super Bowl prop bets stand out versus Kansas City, which gave up a league-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season and whose defense is built to defend the perimeter first and foremost. Goedert has always been a menace versus man coverage; Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo relies on man at one of the league’s highest rates. In four games since returning from a late-season injury, Goedert has secured 19 of 24 targets (79%) for 243 yards (10.1 YPT) and a touchdown. I took Goedert’s yardage ladders and bet him to be this game’s first player to clear 20 receiving yards at 7-to-1 odds. … In seven appearances since returning from a hamstring pull in Week 14, Smith has hyper-efficiently reeled in 39 of 45 targets (87%) for 438 yards (9.7 YPT) and four touchdowns. I don’t have strong Super Bowl betting takes on Smith but can say the dude rarely blows his chances. Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Chiefs 23…
Sunday Football 3:00 PM ET Game Washington @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 27, Commanders 21 I took the Eagles to cover -4.5 as soon as this spread opened, but it’s since been aggressively bet in Philadelphia’s direction. Deservedly so; Commanders stalwart RG Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in last week’s upset of Detroit, a massive loss against on-fire Eagles DT Jalen Carter . In these clubs’ two regular-season meetings, Jayden Daniels did tag Philly DC Vic Fangio ’s unit for a combined 46-of-71 passing (65%), 449 yards (6.3 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio plus 99 yards rushing. I remain concerned that Philadelphia’s relentless and deep defense will overwhelm overachieving Washington. The Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 13 of their last 14 games. … Philly stymied Commanders early-down banger Brian Robinson Jr. to the tune of 26/87/1 (3.3 YPC) rushing in these teams’ 2024 dates, while pass-game specialist Austin Ekeler ’s role tends to grow when Washington plays from behind. The Commanders are underdogs by nearly a touchdown on the road. Through two playoff games, Ekeler has turned 14 carries into 74 yards (5.3 YPC) and secured seven of eight targets for 67 yards. Ekeler to clear 25 receiving yards at -110 odds feels like a sharp prop bet to me. Early-week reports suggested Eagles top perimeter CB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) will play against the Commanders, but Mitchell lasted only nine snaps in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Rams, and Mitchell’s health matters for Terry McLaurin ’s NFCCG draw. McLaurin’s regular-season receiving lines against Philadelphia were 1/10/0 and 5/60/1. I’m viewing McLaurin in a boom-bust light here. … Dyami Brown ran firmly ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus in Week 20’s upset of Detroit, out-snapping him 62 to 33. Through two playoff contests, Brown carries stat lines of 5/89/1 and 6/98/0 versus Zaccheaus’ 3/19/0 and 0/0/0 marks. Zaccheaus is battling a hip/groin injury; No. 4 WR Jamison Crowder and No. 2 TE John Bates have gotten more involved at his expense. Brown’s Sunday matchup isn’t favorable, but he appears to have asserted himself as Washington’s clear No. 2 wideout. … This is a #RevengeGame for ex-Eagle Zach Ertz , who caught seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in these teams’ two regular-season games. Ertz finished 2024 ranked No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91) and No. 4 among TEs in targets inside the 10-yard line (10). The Eagles long ago settled on Saquon Barkley as their offensive focal point — Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes in just two of his last 13 appearances — and no game-plan shift should be anticipated here. In Philadelphia’s two regular-season meetings with Washington, Barkley slammed the Commanders for a combined 55/296/4 (5.4 YPC) rushing line plus 52 yards receiving. Washington has remained plenty vulnerable on the ground in the playoffs, giving up 39/211/2 (5.4 YPC) rushing and 10/90/1 receiving to Bucs and Lions running backs over the last two weeks. Barkley’s matchup is improved by injuries to Commanders DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) and MLB Bobby Wagner (ankle). … Hurts’ box-score results rely on rushing production to a greater extent than any quarterback in the league. He’s reached 240 passing yards in just one of his last 12 games. HC Dan Quinn ’s Commanders were middle of the pack in 2024 rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Hurts’ playoff target distribution: A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert 10; DeVonta Smith 8; Barkley 6; Jahan Dotson 2; Grant Calcaterra 1. … The Commanders figure to assign Marshon Lattimore to Brown here, yet Lattimore has been a liability so far in the playoffs, letting up six catches on eight targets for 77 yards and a score. Pass volume is the main obstacle in the way of AJB’s production. He netted regular-season stat lines of 8/97/1 and 5/65/0 against Washington. … In three games since returning from injury, Goedert has consecutive receiving lines of 4/55/0, 4/47/1, and 4/56/0 while logging a 94% postseason playing-time rate. Bucs and Lions TEs combined to catch eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Weeks 19-20. … Across six appearances since returning from a hamstring pull in Week 14, hyper-efficient Smith has secured 35 of 41 targets (85%) for 393 yards and four TDs. Smith’s ceiling always depends upon the Eagles’ need to throw. Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 23 6:30 PM ET Game Buffalo @ Kansas City Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Bills 23 The Bills and Chiefs have met eight times over the past five seasons — three in the playoffs — and all told Josh Allen is 187-of-299 (62.5%) passing for 2,063 yards (6.9 YPA) with a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio and per-game rushing average of 10.4/56/0.6 against Steve Spagnuolo ’s defense. These teams are a dead-even 4-4 in those affairs, although K.C. has taken all three postseason contests. Down 2024-25’s stretch, the Bills leaned into a bully-ball approach often featuring six offensive linemen. Their combined run-pass ratio was 80-48 in playoff wins over Denver and Baltimore. I’m anticipating another ball-control design from the Bills at Arrowhead unless they fall behind early, necessitating an Allen-Superman game. … James Cook logged Weeks 19-20 touch counts of 23 and 20 against the Broncos and Ravens after averaging 14.9 touches per regular-season week. High-efficiency role player Ty Johnson and situational breather back Ray Davis aren’t going away, but Johnson managed six touches on a 34% snap rate in Buffalo’s narrow Divisional Round win over Baltimore, while Davis has appeared on 13 offensive snaps in two playoff games. Little stands out positively about Cook’s AFCCG draw, but he should continue to float in the 20-touch range. Buffalo stayed true to its five-way WRBC and two-man TEBC in last Sunday’s win over the Ravens. At wideout, Khalil Shakir (67%) and Keon Coleman (66%) led the position group in snaps with Mack Hollins (52%), Amari Cooper (34%), and Curtis Samuel (31%) falling in line behind them. TEs Dawson Knox (57%) and Dalton Kincaid (51%) each drew two innocuous targets against Baltimore. … Shakir has separated himself as the Bills’ lone box-score reliable pass catcher, even as his upside is minimal with a 10.7 yards-per-reception average and four touchdowns through 17 games. … My longer-shot DFS/prop bet play here is Kincaid against a Chiefs defense that hemorrhaged an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season, then coughed up 65 yards on five targets to Texans TEs last week. Across these clubs’ aforementioned eight dates, Patrick Mahomes is 206-of-301 (68.4%) passing for 2,220 yards (7.4 YPA) with an 18:7 TD-to-INT ratio and 27.4 per-game rushing yards average. Bills HC Sean McDermott ’s zone-based defense specializes in preventing big plays, having in 2024 yielded the league’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43). Injuries to top CB Christian Benford (concussion), slot CB Taron Johnson (shoulder/neck), and SS Taylor Rapp (hip/back), however, threaten the stability of Buffalo’s backend. No remaining team is healthier than Kansas City, potentially positioning Mahomes for a sizable box-score result. … Kareem Hunt out-snapped Isiah Pacheco 24 to 16 and out-touched him 9 to 5 in last week’s Divisional Round win over Houston. Even as Pacheco offers more big-play potential, Hunt has earned lead-back duties as a bankable short-yardage/goal-line weapon who consistently gets what’s blocked on between-the-tackles runs. I’m clinging to Hunt as a largely touchdown-reliant DFS gamble here while maintaining a fade on Pacheco. No Chiefs pass catcher draws a more favorable AFCCG matchup than Divisional Round hero Travis Kelce ; injuries to Rapp and LB Matt Milano (hamstring) are cause for major concern for Buffalo’s middle-of-the-field pass coverage after Ravens TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews combined for nine catches, 134 yards, and a touchdown against the Bills last week. Chiefs No. 2 TE Noah Gray is a DFS tournament sleeper after drawing three targets on a 57% playing-time clip last Saturday. … Kansas City ran out a four-way WRBC in Week 20’s win over Houston; Xavier Worthy (82% snaps) continued to operate as their No. 1 wideout with Marquise Brown (67%) at No. 2, JuJu Smith-Schuster (41%) third in line, and DeAndre Hopkins (31%) surprisingly fourth. … It was Hopkins’ lowest playing-time rate through 11 games as a Chief. … Worthy (4/61/1) paced K.C. in receiving in these clubs’ Week 11 date and has logged a playing-time clip of 80% or better in five consecutive games. … Through three appearances with Kansas City, Brown has secured nine of 17 targets for 91 scoreless yards. Brown’s game tends to rely on long passing plays. His box-score outlook will improve if the Bills play Sunday night’s game without Benford and/or Rapp. Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 21…
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for the Conference Championships. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Conference Championship slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
HOU @ KC | WAS @ DET | LAR @ PHI | BAL @ BUF Saturday Football 4:30 PM ET Game Houston @ Kansas City Team Totals: Chiefs 25, Texans 16.5 Even fresh off a somewhat season-saving Wild Card upset win over the Chargers, Houston limps into the Divisional Round nursing injuries throughout its pass-catcher corps and O-Line in a road trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face a healthy Chiefs team that hasn’t played starters since Dec. 25. Exhibiting minimal upside, C.J. Stroud has thrown two TD passes or fewer in 16 of 17 starts this season, while 2024’s Chiefs surrendered the league’s fourth-fewest points per game (19.2). … Following a quiet month-long stretch to close out the 2024 regular season, Joe Mixon reasserted himself as Houston’s unchallenged bellcow back by parlaying 26 touches into 119 yards and a TD on 71% of the offensive snaps in Week 19’s win over the Chargers. Yet the Texans are now two-score underdogs facing a Chiefs defense that held enemy running backs to the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points this regular season. RG Juice Scruggs (knee) — filling in for usual starting RG Shaq Mason (knee) — is banged up. I’ll be fading Houston’s running game as an entity at Arrowhead. Nico Collins (6-foot-3/215) has a big size advantage over Chiefs top corner Trent McDuffie (5-foot-10/193), although Collins was held to 60 scoreless yards on 10 targets in these clubs’ Week 16 date. The Chiefs also get back No. 2 CB Jaylen Watson (ankle) from I.R. this week. In what profiles as a rough spot for Houston’s offense as a whole, I’m taking a conservative viewpoint on Collins’ Divisional Round outlook. … Behind Collins, Dalton Schultz (73%), Robert Woods and John Metchie (51%), Cade Stover (49%), Xavier Hutchinson (38%), Irv Smith Jr. (23%), and Diontae Johnson (22%) rounded out the Texans’ pass-catcher rotation in last week’s loss to the Chargers. Woods (hip) continues to look all out of gas. Stover (broken collarbone, I.R.) is done for the year. Johnson got cut on Tuesday. … Schultz is a viable Week 20 DFS tournament play against a Chiefs defense that gave up a league-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season. … Metchie looks like Houston’s only other notable DFS option after averaging 6.7 targets over the Texans’ last three games. Patrick Mahomes found his groove in Weeks 16-17 — before the Chiefs rested starters in Week 18 — lighting up these same Texans and the Steelers for weekly fantasy results of QB5 and QB7. Houston’s defense remains imposing, but Mahomes’ cast of weapons hasn’t been this loaded in forever with DeAndre Hopkins , Marquise Brown , Xavier Worthy , and Travis Kelce all operating at optimum strength following a near-full-month layoff. In box-score terms, I’m in no way ruling out Mahomes outproducing Week 20’s quarterback field. (He’s an obvious underdog to do so.) … HC Andy Reid indicated this week that Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco will continue to be deployed in a near-even, hot-hand manner with no intention of Kansas City settling on a singular feature back. The Texans presented an unfavorable running back matchup all season, but the Chiefs project to feed both RBs double-digit touches as double-digit home favorites here. Pacheco offers more theoretical big-play explosiveness, yet Hunt may be a better bet to score short-yardage touchdowns. For various reasons, the Chiefs ran a wide-ranging wideout committee in the second half of 2024. Draft-pick compensation led to limitations on DeAndre Hopkins after K.C. got him from Tennessee. Xavier Worthy was a late-blooming project. Marquise Brown broke his shoulder in the preseason and didn’t make his Chiefs debut until Week 16. No. 2 TE Noah Gray played a career-high 58% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in 2024. Travis Kelce remains the Chiefs’ alpha tight end, while Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster purport to have sub-package receiving roles. I’m not sure it will happen, but I would personally like to see Kansas City narrow its pass-catcher distribution to feature Hopkins, Worthy, and Brown near full-time in three-receiver sets. … We have a lot of options here. My favorite box-score bet is Hopkins with his snap regulations presumably removed. I think Hopkins has looked excellent in his limited chances as a Chief. Worthy did lead Kansas City in receiving (7/65/1) in these clubs’ Week 16 date. Kelce is a perennial game breaker in the postseason. Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 10 8:00 PM ET Game Washington @ Detroit Team Totals: Lions 32.5, Commanders 23 Easily the playoffs’ highest-totaled game so far, Commanders-Lions sets up as a track meet in Detroit’s favor. Yet Washington finished No. 5 in the NFL in points per game (28.5) and has a Divisional Round team total that should attract over bets. … Among fantasy QBs, only Lamar Jackson , Josh Allen , Joe Burrow , and Baker Mayfield outscored Jayden Daniels in 2024. Detroit yielded the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy quarterback points this regular season and allowed the fourth-most QB rushing yards (454), notable after Daniels finished No. 2 among quarterbacks in rushing yards (891) behind only Lamar Jackson (915). … Averaging 2.97 yards per carry over his last five appearances, Brian Robinson Jr. deserves to be all but deleted from Washington’s offense. This game’s projected negative script and back-and-forth potential suggest superior receiving option Austin Ekeler ought to operate as the Commanders’ main back here. Among remaining playoff teams, only the Bills (750) and Ravens (674) have given up more receiving yards to running backs than the Lions (592). 2024’s Lions permitted the NFL’s second-most receptions (244) and a league-high 3,147 yards to enemy wideouts. Indoors at Ford Field, to call this a plus spot for Terry McLaurin would be an understatement. McLaurin has scored 14 touchdowns over his last 16 games. The Lions have coughed up the NFL’s second-most 20+ yard completions. … Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown almost evenly split Commanders No. 2 wideout duties against the Bucs; Zaccheaus out-snapped Brown 50 to 45, yet Brown drew five targets to Zaccheaus’ three, and Dyami went off for a career game (5/89/1). I’m down to bet Zaccheaus resumes outproducing Brown here. Zaccheaus’ snap rates over his last four appearances are 68%, 69%, 76%, and 69%. He’s No. 2 in Washington’s wideout packages; Brown, when healthy, is No. 3. … The Lions present a difficult matchup for Zach Ertz on paper, having allowed the NFL’s third-fewest receptions (68) and third-fewest yards (665) to tight ends. At home beneath Ford Field’s comfy dome, Jared Goff draws a Commanders team that plays competitive but middling pass defense. In Detroit this season, Goff has a remarkable 72% completion rate and 21:6 TD-to-INT ratio while averaging 282.4 passing yards per game. We can’t plan on rushing production from Goff, but he can light it up in shootout scenarios. … Back practicing fully, David Montgomery (knee) figures to contribute in short-yardage and pass-pro situations. Jahmyr Gibbs has earned the Lions’ main-back role by averaging 5.7 yards per carry, 162.3 total yards per game, and scoring six all-purpose touchdowns over his last three starts. The Commanders gave up the NFL’s fourth-most rushing yards to running backs (1,935). Relevant for older-school fantasy players, this looks like a Jamaal Charles-Thomas Jones situation with Gibbs in the Charles role and Montgomery as Jones. Especially with Detroit’s skill-player cast fully restored by Montgomery’s return, pinpointing individual Lions to box-score pop feels like an exercise in randomness. Amon-Ra St. Brown is always the safest bet after finishing the regular season No. 2 in the NFL in catches (115), No. 5 in receiving yards (1,263), and No. 3 in receiving TDs (12). … Once questioned in some circles for his ability to earn targets, Jameson Williams indeed averaged 7.1 targets per game over Detroit’s final seven regular-season affairs. Williams has re-entered boom-bust WR2/3 territory. … Sam LaPorta has drawn six or more targets in eight straight games. Nothing stands out about LaPorta’s Week 20 matchup, but his week-to-week usage has been stable. … Lions No. 3 WR Tim Patrick and No. 2 TE Brock Wright are touchdown-reliant, longer-shot dart throws on Divisional Round-only DFS tournament slates. Score Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 24 Sunday Football 3:00 PM ET Game L.A. Rams @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 25, Rams 19 Predictably successful in Wild Card Weekend’s home win over the blitz-heavy Vikings, the Rams now travel to face an Eagles team that blitzes at the NFL’s fifth-lowest rate. Philly’s 2024 defense yielded the league’s second-fewest points per game (17.8), sixth-lowest completion rate (62.2%), a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s third-lowest passer rating (82.5). I’m taking Philadelphia to cover Sunday’s 6-point spread while betting Matthew Stafford unders. … 2024’s Eagles permitted the league’s seventh-fewest rushing yards (1,357) and seventh-fewest receiving yards (473) to running backs. Kyren Williams ’ lone appealing Week 20 trait is his volume projection; he could easily appear on 100% of the Rams’ Divisional Round snaps. Williams is a poor bet for any kind of efficiency. No Rams wideout catches a positive Divisional Round draw. Puka Nacua is always the unit’s best bet for production, averaging nearly 11 targets over his last nine appearances. But 2024’s Eagles yielded the NFL’s third-fewest yards (2,202) to wide receivers. … Looking gassed out at age 31, Cooper Kupp has finished below 30 receiving yards in five of L.A.’s last six games. … Before exiting Week 19 with a chest injury, Tyler Higbee had secured 10 of 12 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. The Eagles defended tight ends stoutly this season but lost every-down MLB Nakobe Dean to a torn patellar tendon last week. Assuming Higbee (chest) plays, he’ll be in a nice spot. If he doesn’t, Colby Parkinson would become an intriguing DFS tournament gamble. … Rams No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson plays a ton of snaps but is rarely thrown to. Disregarding Week 18 when the Rams sat starters, Robinson has drawn three targets or fewer in seven straight. Especially with Philadelphia favored by nearly a touchdown at home, this profiles as a game the Eagles can control with their rushing attack featuring OPOY lock Saquon Barkley . Undersized and explosive, the Rams’ defensive front can cause penetration but yielded the NFL’s sixth-most yards per carry (4.6) this regular season and can be exposed by powerful offensive fronts like the Eagles’. Significant favorites at home and far more talented than their Divisional Round opponent, I like the Eagles’ chances of dominating time of possession with Barkley leading the way. … 2024’s Rams gave up the NFL’s fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6), 10th-highest passer rating (95.9), and seventh-most fantasy QB points per game. Jalen Hurts ’ bottom line almost always comes down to Tush Push rushing scores, but there is nothing to fear about his Week 20 draw. Philadelphia’s probable run-heavy approach makes life difficult on Eagles pass-catcher projections. 2024’s Rams did give up the NFL’s fourth-most completions of 20+ yards (57), while A.J. Brown ranked ninth in the league in 20+ yard grabs (17) and DeVonta Smith finished 22nd (14). The matchups for Brown and Smith are favorable; pass volume is by far the biggest concern. … An utter beast since coming off I.R. two games ago, Dallas Goedert secured eight of 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 18-19, logged a 92% snap rate in Philly’s Wild Card win over the Packers, and stole several souls on last week’s 24-yard catch-and-run TD. The Rams served up 2024’s second-most receptions (106) and fourth-most yards (1,101) to tight ends. This looks like a plus draw for Goedert. Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Rams 17 6:30 PM ET Game Baltimore @ Buffalo Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Bills 25 Totaled at 51.5 points, Ravens-Bills is another Divisional Round game with track-meet potential. Box-score risk surrounding Lamar Jackson involves likely missing Zay Flowers (knee) and this game morphing into a Derrick Henry clinic against a Bills defense best attacked on the ground. As he tends to do this time of year, Henry is cooking with an otherworldly average of 25.8 touches, 175.3 yards, and 1.3 TDs over his last four games. … A bet on Jackson is purely that: a wager on this year’s possible NFL MVP. There are no outstanding matchup advantages working in Jackson’s favor at Buffalo. … Justice Hill offers Divisional Round sleeper appeal on the pretense that Baltimore falls behind. Purely a receiving back, Hill encounters a Buffalo defense that in 2024 coughed up the league’s second-most receptions (92) and a league-high 750 receiving yards to running backs. I’m writing this assuming Flowers sits. … In Flowers’ Week 19 absence, Isaiah Likely paced Baltimore in receiving while logging the second-highest snap rate (80%) of his 53-game career. I expect Ravens wideouts to struggle here with Bills top CB Christian Benford draped on Rashod Bateman and the likes of Tylan Wallace and Nelson Agholor rounding out the position group. … Likely and Mark Andrews stand firmly atop the Ravens’ pass-catcher totem pole. 2024’s Bills yielded the league’s 12th-most catches to tight ends (92). Josh Allen ’s historical numbers against Baltimore are atrocious; in five career dates with the Ravens, Allen is 81-of-156 (52%) passing for 819 yards (5.3 YPA) and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. I’m betting the under on this game’s 51.5-point total. 2024’s Ravens allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest QB rushing yards (233). … A roughly 25% player down the stretch of 2024, Ray Davis ’ Divisional Round availability seems questionable after he got concussed in Week 19’s win over Denver. Davis’ absence would boost box-score outlooks for Bills Nos. 1-2 RBs James Cook and Ty Johnson versus Baltimore. Yet neither Buffalo back sees a friendly draw; this year’s Ravens allowed the league’s third-fewest fantasy running back points. Box-score projections for Bills wide receivers are frustrating to concoct; perimeter cardio guy Mack Hollins led the unit in Week 19 playing time (68%), while rookie Keon Coleman (61%) was right behind him but drew just three targets against the Broncos, and trusty but upside-lacking Khalil Shakir only appeared on 53% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper were minimally involved versus Denver. Bills OC Joe Brady is obviously committed to this five-way wideout weave, crushing its members’ box-score viability. … Dalton Kincaid hasn’t reached a 50% playing-time rate in a game since Week 9. Dawson Knox is a touchdown-or-bust dart throw who’s hit paydirt just once all season. Score Prediction: Bills 24, Ravens 23…
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Divisional Round slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for the Divisional Round. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
LAC @ HOU | PIT @ BAL | DEN @ BUF | GB @ PHI | WAS @ TB | MIN @ LAR Wild Card Saturday 4:30 PM ET Game L.A. Chargers @ Houston Team Totals: Chargers 22.5, Texans 20 Justin Herbert enters Saturday’s date with the Texans beneath Houston’s NRG Stadium roof on a tear, having completed 77 of 105 passes (73%) for 911 yards (8.7 YPA) and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio over Los Angeles’ last three games. Averaging 27.3 rushing yards, Herbert closed 2024’s regular season as fantasy’s overall QB5 in that Weeks 16-18 stretch. … Back from I.R. two weeks ago, J.K. Dobbins immediately reasserted himself as the Bolts’ bellcow by averaging 20.5 touches for 79 yards and 0.5 TDs in wins over the Patriots and Raiders. The Texans surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this regular season, but this profiles as a neutral- to positive-script affair for the Chargers in which Dobbins should again be ridden hard. I’m anticipating another outing of 20+ touches. Ladd McConkey enters Week 19 having topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven straight games while netting fantasy’s cumulative WR10 score in per-game PPR points since Week 8. As McConkey runs 65% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Texans stud outside CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter on the majority of this game’s snaps. … As perimeter cover men, Stingley and Lassiter are far likelier to deal with Week 18 breakout Quentin Johnston , who runs 91% of his routes outside. On paper, this game adds up nicely in Herbert and McConkey’s favor. … Will Dissly is the Chargers’ tight end to bet on if you’re touchdown hunting and/or seeking out a Herbert attachment. Box-score hopes for C.J. Stroud feel wafer thin after a massively disappointing sophomore year in which he took colossal steps back from his rookie season in terms of yards per pass attempt (8.2 > 7.0), QB rating (100.8 > 87.0), and fantasy points per game (18.9 > 14.4). The Texans have allowed free rushers to affect Stroud at an unsustainably high rate, which may cost OC Bobby Slowik his job after this season mercifully ends. Week 19 foe Los Angeles has surrendered the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7) and seventh-lowest passer rating (87). … 28-year-old Joe Mixon should have relatively fresh legs after amassing just 17 combined touches over Houston’s final two regular-season games. 2024’s Chargers limited opposing running backs to the league’s third-fewest fantasy points. Nevertheless, the Texans figure to ride Mixon with authority as long as Saturday’s game stays close. Even with Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Tank Dell (leg/knee) down for the count, Nico Collins hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 13. Yet Collins is worth betting on in Week 19 with team survival on the line. The Chargers have played middling defense against WRs, while Collins established himself as a true alpha this year. … Usage distribution between John Metchie , Robert Woods , Xavier Hutchinson , and Diontae Johnson is to be determined; Johnson is obviously most talented of the group but had fallings out with the Panthers and Ravens in the same year and is learning Houston’s offense on the fly. … Albeit a 2024 disappointment in both real life and fantasy, Dalton Schultz remains the Texans’ primary tight end. It still wouldn’t surprise if rookie TE Cade Stover nearly equaled Schultz in Week 19 playing time. Score Prediction: Texans 21, Chargers 20 8:00 PM ET Game Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Steelers 17 Obviously exacerbated by No. 1 WR George Pickens ’ refusal to buy into the Steelers’ team goals, Russell Wilson dipped into low-end two-quarterback-league territory down 2024’s stretch. From Weeks 11-18, the Ravens yielded a microscopic 5.8 yards-per-pass-attempt average and 72 QB rating. Russ hasn’t so much as reached 220 passing yards since Week 13. … As a two-score road dog here, Pittsburgh projects to feature Jaylen Warren ahead of Najee Harris at Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards (674) to running backs — complementing Warren’s catch-first skill set — while Warren tends to out-snap Harris when Pittsburgh is coming from behind. The Steelers are big underdogs. Pickens’ weekly effort is a guess. In five career dates with the Ravens, Pickens’ stat lines are 8/89/0, 0/0/0, 6/130/1, 2/29/0, and 3/78/0. … Pat Freiermuth has emerged as Pittsburgh’s most reliable receiving option, averaging 6.3 targets and 5.0 catches over the Steelers’ last six games. … In order, Van Jefferson , Calvin Austin , and Mike Williams continue to occupy Pittsburgh’s Nos. 2-4 wide receiver roles. Unless Pickens springs to life and keeps his head on straight, this feels like a dead passing game outside of Freiermuth. As a volume workhorse on a team favored by two scores at home, Derrick Henry looks ticketed for monster Week 19 usage. The Steelers never presented an especially favorable regular-season matchup for enemy rushing attacks, yet Henry piled up 26 all-purpose touches in these clubs’ Week 16 meeting and finished the season No. 1 in the AFC in rushing attempts (325) and rushing yards (1,921) while tying for the league lead in rushing TDs (16). … Beginning with most recent, Lamar Jackson ’s last three weekly fantasy finishes against the Steelers are QB13, QB24, and QB19. No NFL team has done a better job of containing Jackson than Pittsburgh since he entered the league, while the likely absence of Ravens No. 1 WR Zay Flowers (knee) cuts into Jackson’s passing projection. Sans Flowers, Rashod Bateman takes front and center as Baltimore’s No. 1 wideout after netting 2024 career highs in targets (72), receiving yards (756), and TDs (9) while creating separation versus man coverage at a top-10 clip. Pittsburgh did permit the NFL’s eighth-most receiving yards to enemy wideouts (2,635) in 2024. … Mark Andrews logged his second-highest snap rate of the season in Week 18’s win over Cleveland (79%) and has scored 11 touchdowns over Baltimore’s last 12 games. This regular season, Pittsburgh gave up the NFL’s second-most catches (106) to tight ends. … Flowers’ absence also elevates the outlook for Isaiah Likely , who caused Weeks 11 (4/75/0) and 16 (3/29/1) problems for the Steelers. Likely has a chance to be a real difference-maker on playoff-only DFS slates. … Tylan Wallace appears likely to operate as Baltimore’s No. 2 wideout in place of Flowers after logging a 73% snap rate in Week 18’s win over Cleveland. A 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State, Wallace stands 5-foot-11/194 with 4.49 speed and almost no track record of NFL production. He nevertheless warrants mention on playoff-only DFS slates. Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17 Wild Card Sunday 1:00 PM ET Game Denver @ Buffalo Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Broncos 19 I took Denver to cover this game’s 8.5-point spread, even as a Bills Super Bowl ticket holder from all the way back in June. The Broncos are averaging 32.6 points scored over their last seven games while allowing the NFL’s third-fewest points per game (18.3) over the course of the year. … Denver’s short-area passing game theoretically matches up favorably against a Bills defense geared to halt big plays. 30th among 2024 starting quarterbacks in aDOT (3.8), Bo Nix has shown he’s capable of picking apart zone-based secondaries behind an elite pass-protecting offensive line in HC Sean Payton ’s high-percentage attack. The Broncos scored 24 or more points in each of their final seven games. … Denver’s RB distribution remains a conundrum involving Jaleel McLaughlin , Audric Estime , Javonte Williams , and dual-threat Nix, who led the team in Week 18 rushing. McLaughlin looks to be the safest-floor, highest-ceiling bet having handled double-digit touches in four straight appearances. McLaughlin is also Denver’s most natural pass-catching back, while Buffalo has given up the NFL’s second-most grabs (92) and a league-high 750 receiving yards to opposing RBs. Buffalo’s zone-coverage defense has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43), while plus-sized No. 1 CB Christian Benford (6-foot-1/208) has a shot to give Courtland Sutton fits. (Benford has allowed a minuscule 5.4 yards per target this season.) … Marvin Mims Jr. is a rotational part of Denver’s wideout corps — he hovers in the 35-50% snap range on a per-game basis — but is regularly seeing around five targets supplemented by rushing opportunities. Mims is a low-floor, high-ceiling lottery ticket. … Devaughn Vele , Troy Franklin , and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the Broncos’ five-man WR weave. Vele is playing the most of that group. … No member of Denver’s three-way tight end rotation — consisting of Adam Trautman , Nate Adkins , and Lucas Krull — has teased fantasy appeal. MVP favorite Josh Allen ’s Week 19 statistical edges are minimal against a Broncos defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and sixth-lowest QB rating (86.2) while leading the league in sacks (63). I’m parlaying Denver covering 8.5 with the under on this game’s 46.5-point total. … OC Joe Brady narrowing Buffalo’s backfield to feature James Cook and reduce the usage of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis in the playoffs should surprise no one as part of a theoretical effort to feed the Bills’ best players the ball. The Broncos haven’t offered a plus running back draw all season, but Cook is an explosive ball carrier and pass catcher who led the NFL in regular-season rushing touchdowns (16). Buffalo has held strong onto a five-way WR rotation involving possession threat Khalil Shakir , low-volume decoy Mack Hollins , volatile rookie Keon Coleman , hot-and-cold trade-deadline acquisition Amari Cooper , and gadget type Curtis Samuel . The Broncos allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy wide receiver points this season. … Among 2024’s biggest box-score disappointments, Dalton Kincaid hit 55 yards in none of his 13 appearances this season and is by no means assured of playing ahead of Dawson Knox versus Denver. Score Prediction: Bills 21, Broncos 20 4:30 PM ET Game Green Bay @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 25, Packers 20.5 Losers in each of their final two regular-season games, the Packers limp into Philly to face an Eagles team that rested starters in Week 18. Jordan Love was limited in practice this week after losing feeling in his throwing hand in last Sunday’s loss to Chicago, while top deep threat Christian Watson (ACL) is gone for the year. The Eagles have allowed the NFL’s sixth-lowest completion rate (62.2%), a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s third-lowest QB rating (82.5). I’m taking Philly to cover this game’s 4.5-point spread. … No team allowed fewer fantasy running back points than Philadelphia in 2024, while HC Matt LaFleur ’s Packers showed no late-season willingness to adjust game plans to attack opponents’ weaknesses. Josh Jacobs risks running relentlessly into brick walls at Philly. Watson’s loss narrows Green Bay’s probable three-receiver set to Romeo Doubs , Jayden Reed , and Dontayvion Wicks against a rested and elite Eagles secondary that permitted the league’s third-fewest yards to enemy WRs (2,202) this regular season. You’re entirely on your own guessing which Packers wideout might deliver here. … Tucker Kraft is arguably Green Bay’s most stable pass catcher after averaging 50.8 yards over the last six games. Sidelined since Dec. 22, Jalen Hurts should be refreshed physically ahead of Week 19’s home date with Green Bay surrounded by a fully-loaded arsenal that got back Dallas Goedert (knee) from a month-long absence in last Sunday’s win over the Giants. Matchups with the Packers haven’t been overly favorable for enemy quarterbacks, yet Hurts has long been a matchup-proof scorer. He’s 2024’s fantasy QB6 in per-game points. … Deprived of an opportunity to break Eric Dickerson ’s all-time single-season rushing record in Week 18, Saquon Barkley ought to approach Sunday’s game with a chip on his shoulder. A volume fiend on a team favored healthily at home, Barkley is the overall RB1 on the Wild Card slate. Badly missing top CB Jaire Alexander (PCL, I.R.), the Packers got ripped by enemy WRs Justin Jefferson (8/92/0), D.J. Moore (9/86/1), Jalen Nailor (5/81/1), and Jordan Addison (6/69/1) over the last two weeks. This is a green-light spot for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith . … This year’s Packers permitted the league’s 10th-most receptions (93) and eighth-most receiving yards (970) to tight ends, setting up Goedert for a useful Wild Card effort. Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Packers 17 8:00 PM ET Game Washington @ Tampa Bay Team Totals: Bucs 27, Commanders 24 Commanders-Bucs is Wild Card Weekend’s highest-totaled contest in a battle of teams that finished Nos. 4 (TB, 29.5) and 5 (WAS, 28.5) in points per game. Record-setting rookie Jayden Daniels is arguably the most dangerous quarterback left in the NFC, while Tampa Bay coughed up the league’s eighth-highest passer rating (96.6) and third-most fantasy QB points this season. … Back from I.R., Austin Ekeler logged a 60% snap rate in Week 18’s return at Dallas and may be Washington’s top tailback option with Brian Robinson Jr. hitting a late wall. Robinson is scoreless and averaging 3.2 yards per carry over the Commanders’ last four games. Ekeler is Washington’s main receiving RB, while Tampa Bay has yielded the NFL’s sixth-most catches (84) and fifth-most receiving yards (655) to enemy running backs. In playoff DFS, Daniels-to- Terry McLaurin stacks deserve extreme popularity after 2024’s Bucs served up the NFL’s third-most catches (232), seventh-most yards (2,665), and 10th-most TD grabs (18) to wide receivers. … Zach Ertz lacks sexy factor but finished the regular season No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91), No. 6 in catches (66), and No. 4 in TDs (7). Only seven defenses permitted more fantasy tight end points than the Bucs. … Olamide Zaccheaus took hold of Washington’s No. 2 wideout job down the stretch, registering stat lines of 5/70/2 (8 targets), 8/85/1 (9), and 2/51/0 (5) on playing-time rates of 69%, 76%, and 69% in Weeks 16-18. This is a fun spot to tee up Zaccheaus in his expanded role. … The Commanders run a WR rotation behind McLaurin and Zaccheaus involving Dyami Brown , Luke McCaffrey , and Jamison Crowder . They’re all dart throws on postseason DFS slates. Baker Mayfield is on a heater ahead of Sunday night’s potential track meet against the Commanders, over his last five games completing 73% of his passes with a 16:5 TD-to-INT ratio and scintillating 9.0 YPA while averaging nearly 30 rush yards per appearance. Baker was fantasy’s overall QB1 over the season’s final five weeks. … Zooming past Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature back, Bucky Irving logged a season-high 70% of the Bucs’ Week 18 offensive snaps while out-touching White 21 to 0. Washington has given up the NFL’s fourth-most rushing yards (1,935) and 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. The Commanders appear to be banking on trade-deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore to lock up Mike Evans , yet a recurring hamstring injury has limited Lattimore to 116 snaps in eight games since his arrival from New Orleans. Lattimore has historically held an edge on Evans, but I’m betting on Evans to win here. … Grasping a near-every-down role down the stretch, rookie Jalen McMillan was fantasy’s overall WR5 over 2024’s final five weeks. McMillan banked a season-high 88% snap rate in Week 18’s win over New Orleans. … Bucs No. 3 wideout Sterling Shepard hasn’t exceeded 20 receiving yards in a game since Week 14. … Cade Otton (knee) hasn’t played since Week 15. Filling in for Otton over the Bucs’ past three games, Payne Durham turned in receiving lines of 5/29/0, 2/36/1, and 2/16/1. Score Prediction: Commanders 28, Bucs 24 Minnesota @ L.A. Rams Team Totals: Vikings 25, Rams 22.5 Sam Darnold ’s flop in Week 18’s blowout loss to Detroit shakes confidence regarding his Wild Card box-score projection, yet Darnold remains set up for Week 19 success with his supporting cast at full strength facing a Rams defense yielding the league’s fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 10th-highest passer rating (95.9) beneath Arizona’s retractable roof. I’m treating Darnold as a boom-or-bust DFS tournament gamble. … Vikings No. 2 RB Cam Akers is averaging a burly 5.4 yards per carry over his last seven appearances, while Aaron Jones seems to have lost steam down the stretch of his age-30 campaign. Nothing stands out particularly positively or negatively about Minnesota’s run-game draw against the Rams, but I’m betting against Jones functioning as a high-volume workhorse here. Justin Jefferson is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.0 catches, 99.0 yards, and 0.8 TDs over his last six games. He clipped the Rams for 8/115/0 receiving on nine targets in these clubs’ Week 8 meeting. L.A. has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (57); Jefferson leads the league in 20+ yard receiving gains (28). … Jordan Addison is averaging 8.3 targets over his last eight games after averaging 4.7 targets in Weeks 1-10. He ranks No. 4 in the NFL in catches of 40+ yards (6). … The Rams got carved up by Cardinals TE Trey McBride (12/123/1), Seahawks TEs Noah Fant (5/63/1) and A.J. Barner (5/34/1), and Jets TE Tyler Conklin (5/59/0) in their final three regular-season games. After logging a season-high 78% snap rate in Week 18’s loss to Detroit, T.J. Hockenson looks set to cook. … Jalen Nailor merits mention on Wild Card Round DFS tournament slates as Minnesota’s locked-in No. 3 wideout after banking receiving lines of 5/81/1 and 3/53/0 in Weeks 17-18. Nailor regularly hovers in the 50% snap range. He’s cleared 55 yards in just two of 17 appearances. Matthew Stafford has cleared 190 passing yards just once since Week 12. In Week 19, he’ll draw a Vikings defense that leads the league in blitz frequency (42%), while Stafford ranks No. 7 among 36 qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt (8.7) and No. 9 in passer rating (107.7) versus the blitz. … Rams No. 2 RB Blake Corum ’s broken forearm locks Kyren Williams into a potentially massive workload after Packers and Lions running backs combined to tag Minnesota for a 54/276/5 (5.1 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 17-18. Puka Nacua ranks No. 2 in the league in yards per route run (4.2) over the last eight weeks, while no NFL wide receiver is targeted more frequently versus the blitz. This is an eruption spot for Nacua. … Despite his quiet recent stretch, Cooper Kupp is set up for Wild Card success indoors against a Vikings defense yielding the league’s most receptions (255), second-most yards (3,115), and 10th-most touchdown catches (18) to WRs. Like Nacua, Kupp is a blitz-beating receiver by trade. … No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson goose-egged in each of the Rams’ last four Stafford-quarterbacked games. … Even with Tyler Higbee (knee) back, Los Angeles seems committed to a three- to four-way tight end rotation also involving Colby Parkinson , Davis Allen , and Hunter Long . Higbee played only 41% of the Rams’ Week 18 offensive snaps against Seattle. This feels like a fantasy situation to avoid. Score Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 23…
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Wild Card Round slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for the Wild Card Round. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Week 18 slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for Week 18. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

CLE @ BAL | CIN @ PIT | CAR @ ATL | WAS @ DAL | CHI @ GB | HOU @ TEN | JAX @ IND | BUF @ NE | NYG @ PHI | NO @ TB | KC @ DEN | LAC @ LV | SEA @ LAR | MIA @ NYJ | SF @ ARI | MIN @ DET Saturday Doubleheader 4:30 PM ET Game Cleveland @ Baltimore The Ravens are fully motivated with the AFC North title and a first-round home game on the line, and the division-rival Steelers playing right after them on Saturday. The Browns are starting Bailey Zappe , who’s on his third team in three seasons. I’m looking at bets that involve Baltimore holding Cleveland to a touchdown or less, as well as lopsided margin-of-victory bets. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points in each of their last 10 victories. 8:00 PM ET Game Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh At 48 points (-108), the over on Bengals-Steelers is attractive considering Cincinnati is averaging 32.3 points across their last eight games, while Pittsburgh has let up 27.7 PPG since Week 12. The Bengals need a Saturday win plus Sunday losses by both Miami and Denver to qualify for the playoffs. On the other side, Mike Tomlin teams tend to go all-out. Should Chase Brown (ankle, questionable) sit here, I plan to push chips in on Khalil Herbert in terms of prop bets and DFS. Sunday 1:00 PM ET Games Carolina @ Atlanta To make the postseason, the Falcons need a win over the Panthers plus an (unlikely) Bucs Week 18 loss to the Saints. Either way, expect HC Raheem Morris ’ club to go all-out on Sunday from start to finish. Over the last five weeks, Carolina’s defense got eviscerated on the ground by enemy lead backs Bucky Irving (25/152/1), Saquon Barkley (20/124/0), Rico Dowdle (25/149/0), James Conner (15/117/1), and Irving again (20/113/0). This is a balls-to-the-wall Bijan Robinson spot. In terms of yards from scrimmage (rushing plus receiving), I took Robinson to clear 125 at +100, 150 at +205, 175 at +400, and 200 at +750. Washington @ Dallas The Commanders are locked into either the NFC’s sixth or seventh playoff seed, while the Cowboys were eliminated. I have few strong takes on anyone in a battle between teams with questionable motivation. Especially after the Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott , however, I do anticipate another hefty workload for Rico Dowdle . Dowdle is averaging 21.8 touches over Dallas’ last six games. Chicago @ Green Bay Comments from Packers players suggest HC Matt LaFleur ’s team is proactively looking to rest starters. Green Bay and Washington are locked into the NFC’s Nos. 6 and 7 playoff seeds. Chicago’s offense has been incompetent almost all year. This is a stay-away game. Jacksonville @ Indianapolis With Anthony Richardson (back) still sidelined and Joe Flacco staying under center, this is a week to bet on a bounce-back performance by Josh Downs after Downs got outproduced by Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 17. Downs still leads the Colts in targets (52), catches (39), and first-down gains (22) on 2024 throws from Flacco, while Jacksonville has yielded the league’s fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Buffalo @ New England I’m not convinced either starting quarterback will finish this game. The Bills are locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed with nowhere to move and will apparently play Josh Allen only to keep his consecutive starts streak (115) alive. On the other side, rumors suggest the Pats want to showcase sixth-round rookie Joe Milton , a big-armed athlete who made training-camp waves. N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia Giants-Eagles sets up as a hotspot for Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a Philly team so intent on sitting starters that they’re depriving Saquon Barkley a chance to break the all-time single-season rushing record. Averaging 16.3 touches over his last four games, converted college WR Tracy’s all-purpose skill set makes him an attractive rushing-plus-receiving yardage bet at 75 (+100), 100 (+255), and especially 125 (+600) against a resting Eagles team. New Orleans @ Tampa Bay Everyone and their mother is on Mike Evans banking five catches and 85 yards in Week 18, but what about the guy throwing to him? At home against a listless Saints defense, I’m taking the over on Baker Mayfield ’s 252.5 passing-yardage total. Houston @ Tennessee The Texans are locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed, while the Titans plan on playing BOTH Will Levis and Mason Rudolph in the same game. This doesn’t add up to a serious affair, although prop betting and DFS markets could become very interesting if Tyjae Spears (concussion) gets ruled out and Tony Pollard (ankle) plays. 4:25 PM ET Games San Francisco @ Arizona Dual-threat astronaut Josh Dobbs will start in place of Brock Purdy (elbow) against a dead Cardinals team, albeit with questionable availability from George Kittle (ankle, hamstring), Deebo Samuel (rib, wrist), and Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest). The big-game candidate I’m eyeing here is Isaac Guerendo , who’s practiced fully this week and averaged 16.7 touches, 100.7 yards, and 0.7 TDs over his last three appearances. Kansas City @ Denver Having clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed and lacking anything to play for, the Chiefs visit Denver fielding a backup-filled lineup. Expect both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco to sit and Samaje Perine to play sparingly. Carson Steele ’s rushing and TD props stand out. Bo Nix to throw for two-plus touchdown passes (-110) and three-plus (+360) both pop as playable at home in a meaningful game for Denver against reserve Chiefs defenders. Seattle @ L.A. Rams Blake Corum has a chance to be a volume workhorse here with the Rams locked into Nos. 3/4 playoff seeding regardless of Sunday’s outcome, and with Seattle already eliminated. L.A. Chargers @ Las Vegas The Chargers are locked into the AFC’s No. 5/6 seed, and HC Jim Harbaugh ’s motivation to go all-out against the Raiders is fair to question after Justin Herbert , J.K. Dobbins , and Ladd McConkey endured seasons flush with bumps and bruises. I don’t question Raiders HC Antonio Pierce ’s Week 18 motivation at all with his job security hanging by a thread. Expect all-out performances from Aidan O’Connell , rookie record setter Brock Bowers , No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers , and surprise late-season sensation Ameer Abdullah . The over on Meyers’ 57.5-yard receiving prop (-125) feels safe. Miami @ N.Y. Jets The Fins look set to trot out Tyler Huntley again after Huntley netted Week 17’s fantasy QB11 finish, this time against a Jets defense missing two-time Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) and top CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring). In Week 17, Huntley showed a legitimate rapport with Tyreek Hill ; the duo connected on a perfect 9-of-9 targets for 105 yards. However, Miami’s skill-position corps looks to be nearing full strength with Jaylen Waddle (knee) due back, and Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane already healthy. I’m not convinced Hill will see nine targets again. I do think Huntley offers some DFS tournament appeal with all of his weapons ready to go in what is still a meaningful game for Miami. Sunday Night Football Minnesota @ Detroit I’ve reached a trustworthy stage regarding Minnesota’s offense and realize Detroit’s injury-depleted defense is a pushover unit, having permitted point totals of 34 (49ers), 17 (Bears), 48 (Bills), and 31 (Packers) over their last four games. Indoors at Ford Field in literally the most meaningful game all season, I like the Vikings to go over their 27-point team total in Detroit. No NFL defense blitzes at a higher rate than Minnesota’s (38%), while Amon-Ra St. Brown is arguably the league’s premier blitz-beating receiver. It should come as no surprise, then, that St. Brown has clapped the Vikings for stat lines of 8/112/1, 7/144/1, and 12/106/1 in three meetings since Brian Flores took over as Minnesota’s defensive play-caller. Even at -150 odds, I like the over on St. Brown securing 6.5 grabs on Sunday night.…
E
Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Week 17 slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
Добро пожаловать в Player FM!
Player FM сканирует Интернет в поисках высококачественных подкастов, чтобы вы могли наслаждаться ими прямо сейчас. Это лучшее приложение для подкастов, которое работает на Android, iPhone и веб-странице. Зарегистрируйтесь, чтобы синхронизировать подписки на разных устройствах.