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Steve Omohundro on Provably Safe AGI
Manage episode 378876717 series 1334308
Контент предоставлен Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute. Весь контент подкастов, включая эпизоды, графику и описания подкастов, загружается и предоставляется непосредственно компанией Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute или ее партнером по платформе подкастов. Если вы считаете, что кто-то использует вашу работу, защищенную авторским правом, без вашего разрешения, вы можете выполнить процедуру, описанную здесь https://ru.player.fm/legal.
Steve Omohundro joins the podcast to discuss Provably Safe Systems, a paper he co-authored with FLI President Max Tegmark. You can read the paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.01933.pdf Timestamps: 00:00 Provably safe AI systems 12:17 Alignment and evaluations 21:08 Proofs about language model behavior 27:11 Can we formalize safety? 30:29 Provable contracts 43:13 Digital replicas of actual systems 46:32 Proof-carrying code 56:25 Can language models think logically? 1:00:44 Can AI do proofs for us? 1:09:23 Hard to proof, easy to verify 1:14:31 Digital neuroscience 1:20:01 Risks of totalitarianism 1:22:29 Can we guarantee safety? 1:25:04 Real-world provable safety 1:29:29 Tamper-proof hardware 1:35:35 Mortal and throttled AI 1:39:23 Least-privilege guarantee 1:41:53 Basic AI drives 1:47:47 AI agency and world models 1:52:08 Self-improving AI 1:58:21 Is AI overhyped now?
…
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219 эпизодов
Manage episode 378876717 series 1334308
Контент предоставлен Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute. Весь контент подкастов, включая эпизоды, графику и описания подкастов, загружается и предоставляется непосредственно компанией Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute или ее партнером по платформе подкастов. Если вы считаете, что кто-то использует вашу работу, защищенную авторским правом, без вашего разрешения, вы можете выполнить процедуру, описанную здесь https://ru.player.fm/legal.
Steve Omohundro joins the podcast to discuss Provably Safe Systems, a paper he co-authored with FLI President Max Tegmark. You can read the paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.01933.pdf Timestamps: 00:00 Provably safe AI systems 12:17 Alignment and evaluations 21:08 Proofs about language model behavior 27:11 Can we formalize safety? 30:29 Provable contracts 43:13 Digital replicas of actual systems 46:32 Proof-carrying code 56:25 Can language models think logically? 1:00:44 Can AI do proofs for us? 1:09:23 Hard to proof, easy to verify 1:14:31 Digital neuroscience 1:20:01 Risks of totalitarianism 1:22:29 Can we guarantee safety? 1:25:04 Real-world provable safety 1:29:29 Tamper-proof hardware 1:35:35 Mortal and throttled AI 1:39:23 Least-privilege guarantee 1:41:53 Basic AI drives 1:47:47 AI agency and world models 1:52:08 Self-improving AI 1:58:21 Is AI overhyped now?
…
continue reading
219 эпизодов
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Nathan Labenz on the State of AI and Progress since GPT-4 3:20:04
3:20:04
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3:20:04Nathan Labenz joins the podcast to provide a comprehensive overview of AI progress since the release of GPT-4. You can find Nathan's podcast here: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai Timestamps: 00:00 AI progress since GPT-4 10:50 Multimodality 19:06 Low-cost models 27:58 Coding versus medicine/law 36:09 AI agents 45:29 How much are people using AI? 53:39 Open source 01:15:22 AI industry analysis 01:29:27 Are some AI models kept internal? 01:41:00 Money is not the limiting factor in AI 01:59:43 AI and biology 02:08:42 Robotics and self-driving 02:24:14 Inference-time compute 02:31:56 AI governance 02:36:29 Big-picture overview of AI progress and safety…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Connor Leahy on Why Humanity Risks Extinction from AGI 1:58:50
1:58:50
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1:58:50Connor Leahy joins the podcast to discuss the motivations of AGI corporations, how modern AI is "grown", the need for a science of intelligence, the effects of AI on work, the radical implications of superintelligence, open-source AI, and what you might be able to do about all of this. Here's the document we discuss in the episode: https://www.thecompendium.ai Timestamps: 00:00 The Compendium 15:25 The motivations of AGI corps 31:17 AI is grown, not written 52:59 A science of intelligence 01:07:50 Jobs, work, and AGI 01:23:19 Superintelligence 01:37:42 Open-source AI 01:45:07 What can we do?…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Suzy Shepherd on Imagining Superintelligence and "Writing Doom" 1:03:08
1:03:08
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1:03:08Suzy Shepherd joins the podcast to discuss her new short film "Writing Doom", which deals with AI risk. We discuss how to use humor in film, how to write concisely, how filmmaking is evolving, in what ways AI is useful for filmmakers, and how we will find meaning in an increasingly automated world. Here's Writing Doom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfMQ7hzyFW4 Timestamps: 00:00 Writing Doom 08:23 Humor in Writing Doom 13:31 Concise writing 18:37 Getting feedback 27:02 Alternative characters 36:31 Popular video formats 46:53 AI in filmmaking 49:52 Meaning in the future…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Andrea Miotti on a Narrow Path to Safe, Transformative AI 1:28:09
1:28:09
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1:28:09Andrea Miotti joins the podcast to discuss "A Narrow Path" — a roadmap to safe, transformative AI. We talk about our current inability to precisely predict future AI capabilities, the dangers of self-improving and unbounded AI systems, how humanity might coordinate globally to ensure safe AI development, and what a mature science of intelligence would look like. Here's the document we discuss in the episode: https://www.narrowpath.co Timestamps: 00:00 A Narrow Path 06:10 Can we predict future AI capabilities? 11:10 Risks from current AI development 17:56 The benefits of narrow AI 22:30 Against self-improving AI 28:00 Cybersecurity at AI companies 33:55 Unbounded AI 39:31 Global coordination on AI safety 49:43 Monitoring training runs 01:00:20 Benefits of cooperation 01:04:58 A science of intelligence 01:25:36 How you can help…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Tamay Besiroglu on AI in 2030: Scaling, Automation, and AI Agents 1:30:29
1:30:29
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1:30:29Tamay Besiroglu joins the podcast to discuss scaling, AI capabilities in 2030, breakthroughs in AI agents and planning, automating work, the uncertainties of investing in AI, and scaling laws for inference-time compute. Here's the report we discuss in the episode: https://epochai.org/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 Timestamps: 00:00 How important is scaling? 08:03 How capable will AIs be in 2030? 18:33 AI agents, reasoning, and planning 23:39 Automating coding and mathematics 31:26 Uncertainty about investing in AI 40:34 Gap between investment and returns 45:30 Compute, software and data 51:54 Inference-time compute 01:08:49 Returns to software R&D 01:19:22 Limits to expanding compute…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Ryan Greenblatt on AI Control, Timelines, and Slowing Down Around Human-Level AI 2:08:44
2:08:44
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2:08:44Ryan Greenblatt joins the podcast to discuss AI control, timelines, takeoff speeds, misalignment, and slowing down around human-level AI. You can learn more about Ryan's work here: https://www.redwoodresearch.org/team/ryan-greenblatt Timestamps: 00:00 AI control 09:35 Challenges to AI control 23:48 AI control as a bridge to alignment 26:54 Policy and coordination for AI safety 29:25 Slowing down around human-level AI 49:14 Scheming and misalignment 01:27:27 AI timelines and takeoff speeds 01:58:15 Human cognition versus AI cognition…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Tom Barnes on How to Build a Resilient World 1:19:41
1:19:41
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1:19:41Tom Barnes joins the podcast to discuss how much the world spends on AI capabilities versus AI safety, how governments can prepare for advanced AI, and how to build a more resilient world. Tom's report on advanced AI: https://www.founderspledge.com/research/research-and-recommendations-advanced-artificial-intelligence Timestamps: 00:00 Spending on safety vs capabilities 09:06 Racing dynamics - is the classic story true? 28:15 How are governments preparing for advanced AI? 49:06 US-China dialogues on AI 57:44 Coordination failures 1:04:26 Global resilience 1:13:09 Patient philanthropy The John von Neumann biography we reference: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/706577/the-man-from-the-future-by-ananyo-bhattacharya/…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Samuel Hammond on why AI Progress is Accelerating - and how Governments Should Respond 2:16:11
2:16:11
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2:16:11Samuel Hammond joins the podcast to discuss whether AI progress is slowing down or speeding up, AI agents and reasoning, why superintelligence is an ideological goal, open source AI, how technical change leads to regime change, the economics of advanced AI, and much more. Our conversation often references this essay by Samuel: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ninety-five-theses-on-ai Timestamps: 00:00 Is AI plateauing or accelerating? 06:55 How do we get AI agents? 16:12 Do agency and reasoning emerge? 23:57 Compute thresholds in regulation 28:59 Superintelligence as an ideological goal 37:09 General progress vs superintelligence 44:22 Meta and open source AI 49:09 Technological change and regime change 01:03:06 How will governments react to AI? 01:07:50 Will the US nationalize AGI corporations? 01:17:05 Economics of an intelligence explosion 01:31:38 AI cognition vs human cognition 01:48:03 AI and future religions 01:56:40 Is consciousness functional? 02:05:30 AI and children…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Anousheh Ansari on Innovation Prizes for Space, AI, Quantum Computing, and Carbon Removal 1:03:10
1:03:10
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1:03:10Anousheh Ansari joins the podcast to discuss how innovation prizes can incentivize technical innovation in space, AI, quantum computing, and carbon removal. We discuss the pros and cons of such prizes, where they work best, and how far they can scale. Learn more about Anousheh's work here: https://www.xprize.org/home Timestamps: 00:00 Innovation prizes at XPRIZE 08:25 Deciding which prizes to create 19:00 Creating new markets 29:51 How far can prizes scale? 35:25 When are prizes successful? 46:06 100M dollar carbon removal prize 54:40 Upcoming prizes 59:52 Anousheh's time in space…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
Mary Robinson joins the podcast to discuss long-view leadership, risks from AI and nuclear weapons, prioritizing global problems, how to overcome barriers to international cooperation, and advice to future leaders. Learn more about Robinson's work as Chair of The Elders at https://theelders.org Timestamps: 00:00 Mary's journey to presidency 05:11 Long-view leadership 06:55 Prioritizing global problems 08:38 Risks from artificial intelligence 11:55 Climate change 15:18 Barriers to global gender equality 16:28 Risk of nuclear war 20:51 Advice to future leaders 22:53 Humor in politics 24:21 Barriers to international cooperation 27:10 Institutions and technological change…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Emilia Javorsky on how AI Concentrates Power 1:03:35
1:03:35
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1:03:35Emilia Javorsky joins the podcast to discuss AI-driven power concentration and how we might mitigate it. We also discuss optimism, utopia, and cultural experimentation. Apply for our RFP here: https://futureoflife.org/grant-program/mitigate-ai-driven-power-concentration/ Timestamps: 00:00 Power concentration 07:43 RFP: Mitigating AI-driven power concentration 14:15 Open source AI 26:50 Institutions and incentives 35:20 Techno-optimism 43:44 Global monoculture 53:55 Imagining utopia…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Anton Korinek on Automating Work and the Economics of an Intelligence Explosion 1:32:24
1:32:24
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1:32:24Anton Korinek joins the podcast to discuss the effects of automation on wages and labor, how we measure the complexity of tasks, the economics of an intelligence explosion, and the market structure of the AI industry. Learn more about Anton's work at https://www.korinek.com Timestamps: 00:00 Automation and wages 14:32 Complexity for people and machines 20:31 Moravec's paradox 26:15 Can people switch careers? 30:57 Intelligence explosion economics 44:08 The lump of labor fallacy 51:40 An industry for nostalgia? 57:16 Universal basic income 01:09:28 Market structure in AI…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Christian Ruhl on Preventing World War III, US-China Hotlines, and Ultraviolet Germicidal Light 1:36:01
1:36:01
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1:36:01Christian Ruhl joins the podcast to discuss US-China competition and the risk of war, official versus unofficial diplomacy, hotlines between countries, catastrophic biological risks, ultraviolet germicidal light, and ancient civilizational collapse. Find out more about Christian's work at https://www.founderspledge.com Timestamps: 00:00 US-China competition and risk 18:01 The security dilemma 30:21 Official and unofficial diplomacy 39:53 Hotlines between countries 01:01:54 Preventing escalation after war 01:09:58 Catastrophic biological risks 01:20:42 Ultraviolet germicidal light 01:25:54 Ancient civilizational collapse…
Christian Nunes joins the podcast to discuss deepfakes, how they impact women in particular, how we can protect ordinary victims of deepfakes, and the current landscape of deepfake legislation. You can learn more about Christian's work at https://now.org and about the Ban Deepfakes campaign at https://bandeepfakes.org Timestamps: 00:00 The National Organisation for Women (NOW) 05:37 Deepfakes and women 10:12 Protecting ordinary victims of deepfakes 16:06 Deepfake legislation 23:38 Current harm from deepfakes 30:20 Bodily autonomy as a right 34:44 NOW's work on AI Here's FLI's recommended amendments to legislative proposals on deepfakes: https://futureoflife.org/document/recommended-amendments-to-legislative-proposals-on-deepfakes/…
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Future of Life Institute Podcast
1 Dan Faggella on the Race to AGI 1:45:20
1:45:20
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1:45:20Dan Faggella joins the podcast to discuss whether humanity should eventually create AGI, how AI will change power dynamics between institutions, what drives AI progress, and which industries are implementing AI successfully. Find out more about Dan at https://danfaggella.com Timestamps: 00:00 Value differences in AI 12:07 Should we eventually create AGI? 28:22 What is a worthy successor? 43:19 AI changing power dynamics 59:00 Open source AI 01:05:07 What drives AI progress? 01:16:36 What limits AI progress? 01:26:31 Which industries are using AI?…
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