John Deere Earnings Confirm Farm RECESSION

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📈 John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings 🚜
John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deere’s stock is up 9% year-to-date 📊.
🌱 Soybean Futures Face Pressure 🌍
Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows 📉. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market 🌾.
🌾 US Soybean Export Sales Surge 🌍
US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold 🛳️. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans 🇨🇳. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average 🌽.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update 🌾
The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall 🌧️. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October 🌽. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions 🌾.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress 🚜
Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted 🌱. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth 🌿. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested 🌾.
🚨 Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal 🌍
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:
198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations 🌎.
133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines 🇵🇭.
These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products 📦.
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