Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions

International report

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country.

Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports.

"This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention."

The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue.

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"A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said.

Turkish-Egyptian relations

However, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions.

"We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis.

"Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey."

Economic crises

With both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration.

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"These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst

"They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has.

"So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment."

Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters.

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At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation.

"What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui.

"And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board.

"But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.