9/25 - Wednesday

The Buresh Daily Discussion

Tropical Storm Helene forecast to become a hurricane today as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico • Tropical Storm Helene is looking "healthier" this morning as it makes its closet approach to the Yucatan Peninsula. • Steady intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours, with more rapid intensification possible beyond that into Thursday. • The forecast continues to call for a major hurricane to landfall in between Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Thursday. Shifts are possible and impacts will occur far from the landfall point due to the expected large size of the storm. • A track closer to, or even east of, Cedar Key would heighten our local impacts. A track closer to Apalachicola would lessen them quite dramatically. • Timeline based on the current forecast: o Wednesday: Increasing clouds and slowly increasing winds becoming breezy at the beaches by the afternoon. A few showers with gusty winds will be possible in the afternoon/evening. o Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning: Cloudy and windy, with rain bands lifting from south to north. These will have the potential to produce isolated tornadoes/waterspouts. o Mid-Day Thursday: Still cloudy and windy, but there could be a sizable break in the rain. o Thursday Afternoon/Evening: More rain bands pivot in around the storm. These will contain an even greater risk for tornadoes and water spouts, and some tropical storm force wind gusts. o Thursday Night: Helene makes landfall between 8 and 10 pm with the core of the storm pushing hurricane conditions inland to Columbia County (Lake City) and perhaps as far inland as Waycross in gusts. o Friday Morning: A few wrap-around gusty showers, but rapidly improving weather by late-morning into the afternoon. • Minor to moderate flooding will be possible Thursday evening and overnight along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and coastal areas prone to flooding. Some minor storm surge will be possible along the NE FL coast during a period of onshore winds. Slightly higher surge is possible across the SE GA coastline. • So overall, manageable impacts across our metro with sporadic tree and power issues. Minimal flooding threat. Greater impact inland closer to the core of the storm. Magnitude of impacts still track-dependent. TODAY: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy. Showers arrive late in the afternoon and evening. High: 88 TONIGHT: Cloudy with a swath of rain moving in. Winds begin to increase a bit at the coast. LOW: 75 THURSDAY: First Alert Weather Day. Tracking Helene. Cloudy and humid with rain and wind. Isolated tornadoes possible. 75/85 FRIDAY: Helene quickly moves away as we see decreasing clouds with a few breezy showers/storms. 75/88 SATURDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers. 75/89 SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers. 72/86 MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers. 73/86 TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers. 70/86