Tom Chivers | Probability & Bayes Theorem

The Incerto Podcast

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Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...

• Brian Klaas – Fluke & Randomness
• Russ Roberts – EconTalk
• Luca Dellanna – Ergodicity All The Way Down
• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

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Everything Is Predictable – Tom Chivers

Tom Chivers is a prolific science writer whose written for Buzzfeed, The Telegraph, Unherd, published books, written for loads of other publications as well and now writes for Semafor’s daily flagship email (something I read everyday)… but here Tom is today to discuss his book about Bayes called… EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World and, the lead is not buried in this case, it is a book about Bayes Throerom which to put it simply… is an equation to calculate probability.

Now, my Talebian listeners will recognise a contradiction to our worldview in the title here… everything is predictable? how often has Taleb’s quotes, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past appeared on this podcast? We get into Chivers differences with that Talebian worldview, but as well, there is top to bottom what is Bayes theorem, why does it matter, the role of this theorem at the foundation of all of these LLM’s and therefore much of AI. a neat little anecdote of Chivers family member, Sir John Maynard Keynes and plenty more as well!

• 00:00 – Who Is Tom Chivers
• 01:34 – Great Great Uncle John Maynard Keynes
• 08:44 – What’s The Point Of Bayes?
• 19:14 – What Is Bayes Theorem?
• 39:34 – Disagreeing With Nassim Taleb
• 52:24 – Counterintuitive Aspects Of Bayes
• 56:28 – Bayes & LLM’s & AI
• 1:15:12 – Serendipity In Tom’s Life

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