"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG Analytics

The IRF Podcast

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.

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ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.

In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.

They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.

David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.