#113 - Here's What You Can Learn From 37,000 Land Transactions: The Heartland Report with Aaron Shew of Acres.com

The Land Podcast - The Pursuit of Land Ownership and Investing

LAND REPROT: https://landvalues.acres.com/farmland-values-heartland-report

This week, we have a returning guest, Aaron Shew, a data scientist at Acres, to talk about a recent report they released, “The Heartland Report,“ a comprehensive analysis that offers an in-depth examination of land values spanning from the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2023. What makes this report particularly remarkable is its extensive dataset, comprising over 37,000 real land transactions gathered from across the sprawling Midwest region. With this wealth of data, Aaron and his team have meticulously aggregated information to unveil the trends, shifts, and patterns that have defined Heartland's farmland landscape in the past three years.

If you are a land buyer, investor, or broker, this report is a valuable tool that will give you a good idea of what happened in the last three years. It will not only provide you with critical insights into the dynamics of farmland values but also offer a comprehensive understanding of the factors that have shaped the land market.

Now, let’s jump in!

Key Highlights from the Show

[00:01] Episode intro and pre-show talk

[02:39] Aaron’s background and what he does as a data scientist at Acres

[05:36] What inspired the idea of the Heartland Report

[08:47] The date range when they started the Heartland analysis

[09:30] Where to find and download The Heartland Report

[10:41] Aaron’s assumptions that were confirmed and debuted by the report

[14:31] Aaron's perspective on the causes of the spike in sales in farmland

[16:39] The price breaker and some factors and firms that they filtered out

[19:36] Productivity index (PI), how the price is calculated, and Aaron’s findings

[29:24] Illinois run of price and the number of class A, B, and C sales

[31:25] Aaron's opinion of Indiana based on the data that they retrieved

[33:57] Iowa price breaker gradient and what Aaron and his team found

[36:02] Minnesota’s class A steep decline compared to other states

[38:33] Findings from Missouri on land value and sales trends

[41:33] Nebraska irrigated, and non-irrigated grounds value broad report

[43:50] High-level trends that Aaron and his team found in Ohio

[45:31] Aaron’s predictions for the next 2-3 years based on the last 3 years trend

[48:13] Aaron’s perspective looking at The Heart Land report in 20 years

[50:22] How to send your feedback and ideas to Aaron based on the report

[51:09] Ending the show and calls to action

Notable Quotes

• Until you get the big picture of data and trends, there are a thousand rabbits to chase.
• The Heartland report is not meant to replace local knowledge and the broker but to empower them in decision-making.
• If a farm is 10 miles from the nearest city vs. 50 miles, there is a big difference in the value; the value of farmland is not entirely tied to productivity.