E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics.

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) Is this the Polymarket election?

(08:55) Prediction markets

(11:07) Politics and prediction markets

(15:13) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv

(17:48) CrowdStrike and the cost of software failures

(23:39) AI adoption and workplace dynamics

(27:29) Financial systems post-Great Financial Crisis

(35:02) USSR's computer network for economic planning

(40:01) Best performing stock of the last 100 years

(43:22) AI's impact on software and hardware economics

(48:46) Market cycles and political influence

(51:11) Dot-com crash, Y2K, and the housing bubble

(54:28) Stripe and the future of private companies

(59:12) Venture capital vs. Private equity returns

(01:00:49) Outro

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LINKS:

Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co

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X / TWITTER:

https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik)

https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)

https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)